Double Dutch, 21st July 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 21st July 2014

If Carlsberg did Saturday evenings, then they’d have probably given us the last set of runners for Double Dutch!

Short odds aside, it turned out to be a perfect evening for us, with a 1-2 finish in both race, as both favourites won by three-quarters of a length with the rest of the field some way back, ensuring a modest but welcome 7.75/1 double.

It all started at Cartmel, where both winner Poetic Verse and runner-up Gold Chain had drifted nicely in the market, but still put 16 lengths between them and the third-placed horse.

A similar result followed over the mile at Lingfield, with our favourite winning and the third placed horse was 6 lengths adrift of our two runners. Short of getting the bigger priced of our selections to win, it couldn’t have been better.

Although some of us/you did also have these runners in a 31.8/1 treble with the 11/4 winner from Stat of the Day to bring about a very satisfactory conclusion to the week’s tipping.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Poetic Verse: won at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
Gold Chain: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
(Forecast paid 10.62/1 and the exacta was at 5.70/1)
———————————
Tee It Up Tommo: won at 5/4 (adv 6/4)
Elusive Guest: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
(Forecast paid 3.64/1 and the exacta was at 4.30/1)

Results to date:
295 winning selections from 1039 = 28.39%
98 winning bets in 271 days = 36.16%

Stakes: 544.00pts
Returns: 617.66pts

P/L : +73.66pts (+13.54% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

No time to rest on our laurels, as Monday heralds a new week full of new challenges, starting with the…

3.35 Cartmel:

Fantasy King has proven to be both useful and versatile so far in his career, having performed well on the Flat and on the A/W, before achieving bumper success and a good level of consistency over hurdles, where he won once and was placed 6 further times from just 8 attempts, with his only unplaced run over hurdles coming in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham this year, so that can be excused/ignored.

He made his chasing debut last time out almost eight weeks ago, when finishing 4th of 5 over today’s course and distance. That might not sound great, but he was only beaten by four lengths and jumped pretty soundly. We can expect him to come on for having had that first crack at fences and this looks a weaker contest than last time, offering him an excellent opportunity to open his chasing account with a win at 15/8 BOG.

Also of interest is Vinnie My Boy, who also goes over fences for he second time after showing some promise on debut at Market Rasen last time out. He recovered from an early (excusable) mistake to remain in contention until the last fence, where the exertion took its toll and he faded late on. He’ll also come on for that run and in Peter Bowen, has a trainer who excels in getting his chasers home at this time of year.

In the “summer” jumps (April-September) seasons from 2010 to now, his chasers have won 83 of 391 contests (21.2% SR) for 213.5pts (+54.6% ROI) profit and Vinnie My Boy will look to add to that tally with a 2/1 BOG success here today, which would further improve his yard’s record of 5/17 for 9.8pts here at Cartmel.

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4.25 Ayr:

Where I’d expect Real Jazz to improve upon her runner-up finish on handicap debut at Chepstow ten days ago. That was her first run for almost seven months and she was only beaten by a couple of lengths and had the third-placed horse another three lengths back. She’ expected to strip fitter for that run and also to come on for having had a crack at handicaps under her belt. She looks most likely to succeed here, especially off the same mark as last time out and can be backed at a generally available 15/8 BOG.

Had it not been for a 7lb hike in the weights, I’d have expected Next Stop to give the selection a real run for her money, but I still feel Next Stop is the most viable challenger despite the added burden.

She makes her debut for David Nicholls today and will hope to transfer her decent A/W form to turf. She has already won over today’s trip at Kempton on her own handicap debut and showed both versatility and stamina when suffering a narrow defeat last time out. She had stepped up 3 furlongs and was 6lbs higher in the weights when collared late on to be defeated by just a neck by Nyanza who then stepped up in class to finish third at Newbury, going down by less than a length.

The drop back to a mile should certainly help and at 11/4 BOG offers a creditable challenge to the main selection.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

Fantasy King / Real Jazz @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Fantasy King / Next Stop @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : SkyBet)
Vinnie My Boy / Real Jazz @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Vinnie My Boy / Next Stop @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)