Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2014
No joy at all on Monday afternoon as Sergeant Pink was not only weak in the market (SP of 6/1 from our advised 4/1), but he was also beaten by a country mile (over 70 lengths). The bright spot (clutching at straws here) was that two other horses were 21 lengths and 64 lengths respectively behind him in a well-strung out affair. Had it been a 3 mile contest, one of them might have got lapped! 😀
Anyway, enough about that debacle, and on to Tuesday and just a short trip further North still in Cumbria for the…
Where trainer George Baker makes only his second ever career visit and his only runner of the day, the 4 yr old filly and current 3/1 BOG shot, Mrs Warren becomes just his second representative at this course.
Since the start of the 2011 season, it has been profitable to back George’s horses blindly in flat handicaps. Over the last three and a half seasons or so, 48 of his 350 (13.7% SR) handicappers have won and between them they have generated 174.2pts profit at an ROI of 49.8%.
And in Mrs Warren he has a filly at the top of her game. She was narrowly defeated in consecutive efforts over 7 furlongs recently: beaten by a short head at Brighton on April and then by a neck at Kempton in May, before going back to Brighton, where she finally got on the right side of a tight finish,staying/holding on to win by a neck.
She now comes here on the back of that win and steps up in class for this encounter today. There are, however, some stats to suggest that she will run well at this higher level, as George Baker’s horses running on the back of a win last time out and then reappearing at either the same class or 1 grade higher, have won 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) races for level stakes profits of 65.5pts (+133.6% ROI). This year alone he has had 4 winners from 9 such horses for profits of 19pts.
Such are the vagaries about the racing calendar (another discussion for another day), Carlisle is the only racecourse in England staging Flat racing, meaning that Mrs Warren is set for a 560-mile and 9hrs (or more) journey from home in Wiltshire to race and then home again and as her trainer’s only runner of the day, she’s going to be expected to earn the fare home!
This actually happens to be the case quite often for Mr Baker, as since 2010, when he has only had the one runner on show he has saddled up 21 winners from 116 at a strike rate of 18.1% : very handy indeed, as are the levels takes profits of 61.8pts which equate to £5.33 profit for every £10 wagered.
And if the money is going down, there’s usually more profit involved, as those solo runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 have won 20 of 63 (31.75% SR) races for an impressive 70.6pts at an ROI of 112%.
This is admittedly a tougher challenge than she has faced of late, but the form she has shown this season suggests there’s still more to come from Mrs Warren, who looks a fairly solid 1pt win bet at 3/1 BOG here today. I’ve got on with Bet365, but you should have no problems getting the same price, as both BetVictor & Hills are currently matching it.
11/4 BOG seems to be the standard elsewhere, so this one might shorten a touch as time goes by, but you can keep bang up to date with all the odds, if you just…
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