Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2014

Mrs Warren failed to defy top weight at Carlisle and she was having to be quite strongly ridden with a good third of the contest to run. She was well fancied (by other than just ourselves!), as she was backed in to be the 2/1 favourite att he off, but many people will have disappointed in the final outcome.

She finished 5th of 7 and was nearer the last placed horse (7 lengths) than she was to the winner (8 lengths), so not the best of runs.

A/W action in Surrey awaits us next in the…

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4.00 Lingfield: 

And Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner Panther Patrol, who is currently an 11/4 BOG shot at winning for the second time in five days.

If you had backed every one of Eve’s A/W handicappers who were sent off at 12/1 or shorter since the start of 2011, you’d have bagged 14 winners from 75 at a strike rate of 18.7% and the level stakes profits of 58.5pts equate to 78% of all stakes invested.

Add this to the general fact that horses turned back out within five days of a win last time out perform very well under the following criteria : same class as last time, running within half a furlong of their last run (to allow for racecourse variance) andrunning off the same OR or no more than 7lbs higher. Horses fulfilling those criteria have won 76 of 213 (35.7% SR) races since 2011 for profits of 72.2pts (+33.9% ROI). Of those 213 runners, the record at today’s Class 5 level is 29/66 (43.9% SR) for 75.8pts (+58.8% ROI).

If we apply a simple odds filter of evens to 6/1 to the original set of 213 runners, we increase both the strike rate and the ROI with 57 winners from just 152 races (37.5% SR) for 80pts (+52.6% ROI) profit with a record at Class 5 of 22/48 (45.8% SR) for 44.1pts (+91.9% ROI).

Panther Patrol hadn’t won for 14 races and hadn’t even been placed in the last seven, before winning at Newbury last friday and now his handlers are seeking to strike whilst the iron is hot and get him to win again in close succession.

He wouldn’t, of course, be the first horse to do this, as since the start of 2013, horses running in an A/W handicap shortly after winning last time out on the back of a string of at least three unplaced runs, have won 96 of 320 (30% SR) races when sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter. This has generated 95.8pts (+29.9% ROI) profit to date, with those running at today’s Class 5 winning 27 of 83 (32.5% SR) races for profits of 36.1pts at an ROI of 43.5%.

When Panther Patrol won fairly cosily at Newbury last week, that was an apprentices’ race and this means he’s not penalised for that win and should still be very well treated at a track where he was a course and distance winner last year off a mark 4lbs higher than today. he should come here with renewed confidence and is weighted to go in once more in what looks a fairly nondescript contest.

I’m getting on Panther Patrol (not literally, he’d end up more than a few pounds overweight!) at 11/4 BOG with Boylesports, but as always, I strongly recommend that you…

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