Double Dutch, 23rd July 2014
It was a strange type of winning whilst losing day yesterday. That’s sounds a bit wrong, so let me explain further.
Race 1 went really well, Best Boy barney drifted out from 13/8 to 2/1, but still won and led our other pick, Long Wave, home for an exacta that paid 5.6/1.
All good so far, but then Ereyna was withdrawn from race 2, halving our chances of the double, but guaranteeing us at least 1.5pt return and some damage limitation of just a 0.5pt loss.
Unfortunately Our Maimie could only mange third place, so although we got a return from a winner, it was still a losing day financially. Clear as mud now?
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Best Boy Barney: won at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
Long Wave: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
The Exacta paid £6.60 here.
Our Maimie: 3rd at 1/1 (adv 5/2)
Ereyna: non-runner (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
296 winning selections from 1046 = 28.30%
99 winning bets in 273 days = 36.26%
P/L : +71.16pts (+12.99% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is where I’m going on Wednesday…
The only two horses with any real form here are the two at the head of the market. Quinsman is the current 7/4 BOG favourite and it’s easy to see why. He was a decent enough hurdler, but has made an excellent start to life as a chaser. He has run twice over fences so far, both over today’s course and distance, finishing third on his first attempt, before winning by 4 lengths a week ago.
He obviously carries a penalty for that win, which might make things a little tougher for him, but he’s still very unexposed over fences and could well have plenty more to give. If he shoulders the extra 7lbs well enough, he;s a good bet at 7/4 BOG.
Lisheen Hill is next in line and although this race is only his second start over fences, he comes here ion good nick on the back of a course and distance win here three weeks ago. That was, admittedly, over hurdles, but if he can transfer his hurdling form to chasing, he stands a good chance of pushing the main selection quite hard.
He has actually been 3lbs in the ratings from that C&D win last time out and also from his chasing debut back in May. This should make him more competitive and this means that he now gets 13lbs from the favourite and I think he’s worth taking a secondary punt on at 11/4 BOG.
I’m struggling to see beyond either Bold Lass or Pearl Nation for this one.
Bold Lass is the least exposed runner in the race and was a maiden winner over course and distance and then beaten by only a length back here in May. She does need top bounce back from a disappointing run on polytrack in June, but she has been given six weeks off since and a return to these conditions should be in her favour, making her a viable prospect at 5/2 BOG.
Pearl Nation is up 3lb after breaking a long losing run beating a subsequent winner at Yarmouth last time out. That was his debut for the very shrewd Mick Appleby and I wouldn’t be surprised if further improvement was found. That victory was more comfortable than the margin of a neck might sound and the form has been franked with the runner-up going on to score at Salisbury 11 days ago. The handicapper hasn’t been too harsh and he could well go in again at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Quinsman / Bold Lass @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Quinsman / Pearl Nation @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetFred, BetVictor & BoyleSports)
Lisheen Hill / Bold Lass @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Lisheen Hill / Pearl Nation @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)