Stat of the Day, 24th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2014

An easy win for Panther Patrol on Wednesday at Lingfield, as he made all in his bid for back to back victories. He readily opened up big (8 lengths?) lead on the home straight, before sensibly being eased down once the race was won.

He will have been a popular winner in the betting ring, coming home as the 5/4 favourite, somewhat shorter than our advised 11/4 wager. I shan’t even mention the merits of BOG backing! 😀

He’ll obviously be penalised for this win, but unless the assessor hammers in, he could well win again next time out, so keep your eyes open.

We’re heading West on Thursday for the…

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2.20 Bath: 

A Class 6 handicap over ten furlongs, where my pick is Sir Mark Prescott’s 7/2 BOG shot Alba Verde (Green Dawn?), who makes only her second appearance in a handicap and steps up in trip from a mile to run here.

Her trainer has a decent enough record here at Bath, despite not sending lots of runners here. In handicap races since 2009, SMP has seen 12 of his 28 (42.9% SR) handicappers return as winners here at Bath and although the 2.7pts profit produced is a modest 9.6% ROI, it still beats sticking your money in the bank.

However from that 12/28 record…
12/23 (52.2% SR) for 7.7pts (+33.4% ROI) with horses priced 4/1 or shorter
11/23 (47.8% SR) for 6.25pts (+27.2% ROI) with 3 year olds and…
7/15 (46.7% SR) for 3.8pts (+25.3% ROI) with fillies.

I haven’t checked the record for 3yr old fillies priced at 4/1 or under, but I’d imagine it to be a very small sample size! 😀

Also of possible interest is the fact that Sir Mark has stepped 104 horses up in trip for a Class 6 handicap of a mile and beyond since the start of the 2009 campaign. 31 of the 104 (29.8%) have been returned as winners and the 51.3pts profit they have generated equates to 49.3% of stakes invested.

In the 2/1 to 8/1 price range, that record improves to 21 winners from 58 (36.2% SR) for 79.2pts (+136.6% ROI). My eyes always light up when I see an ROI in excess of 100%!

And more specifically (and we’re talking niche here), in the last four seasons, Sir Mark has stepped 15 3yr olds up in trip for their 2nd crack at a handicap whilst running in the same class as last time out and six of the fifteen (40% SR) have won, generating 21.5pts (+143.4% ROI) profit with the 2/1 to 8/1 range once again improving the overall figures to 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+232% ROI).

In truth, Alba Verde hasn’t shown much in her four starts to date over probably inadequate trips of 7f (three times) and a mile last time out. Yet despite three fairly poor runs at 7f, she was still sent off as favourite last time out (Ffos Las, 1m, 24 days ago), so there must be people expecting more from her.

She’s closely related to a dual Group 2 winner over 10 furlongs in Last Second and also in her family is Alleluia, a Group 3 winner over 2m2f which suggests she might stay further in time.

I’ve found enough above to keep me interested and they do say that stats don’t lie, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Alba Verde at 7/2 BOG. I’m on with Hills for this one, but Paddy Power and BetVictor are both offering the same odds, so you can take your pick when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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