Stat of the Day, 26th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2014

It was great to get off to a winning start yesterday. And how! I’d considered Robert Cowell’s Iffranesia to be value at 9/2 the night before. So imagine my surprise when, in spite of several fancies runners coming out, our filly won at 13/2. That truly was the magic of Best Odds Guaranteed in a nutshell there.

Saturdays always have a trickier look to them, and today is no exception. In that context, I’m asking for a price about a proven soldier on today’s battlefield in the…

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2.20 York:

It’s a wide open event is this, according to the betting at least, and you can have 5/1 your pick. The angle in today is a ‘line of green’ on The Shortlist. And not one of those (relatively) flimsy ‘1 win from 3 starts’ lines of green either.

No, Dutch Rose is perfectly suited to today’s test. She’s run on good to firm nine times, winning three and placing three more. She’s run in Class 2 five times, winning three of them. She’s run at York five times, winning four of them. And she’s run over seven furlongs nine times, winning six of them.

In short, she’s a seven furlong fast ground Class 2 specialist, who loves York.

Pace wise, she should be able to sit just behind the speed – probably cut out by stablemate, Alejandro. The only slight niggle is her mark of 102, which is four pounds higher than her highest winning mark. That high was recorded over this course and distance – and in this grade – at the end of May, implying she’s not done improving yet.

Her trainer, David O’Meara, has an excellent course record in the last year: he’s won 12 from 86 for a profit of 18.75 units at SP.

This will be her toughest assignment to date, but she’s a value price, and that’s enough to get the vote. 1pt win bet on Dutch Rose at 11/2 BOG is the call. BetVictor are the only offer at time of writing, but do…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 York

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Here is today’s racecard.

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