Stat of the Day, 28th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2014

Dutch Rose was very well backed on Saturday, from our 11/2 into 3/1 favourite. But she was never really travelling in the race, and we knew our fate from halfway, alas.

We get straight back on the horse again today, with a partnership proposition in the…

4.45 Lingfield:

Trainer Luca Cumani has struck up a real bond with jockey Adam Kirby and, while it’s a less high profile pairing than ‘Filthy’ Luca’s Andrea Atzeni association, that may actually be a boon when it comes to the available odds.

Here at Lingfield, Cumani has requested the services of Kirby on three occasions in the past year, and all three have won. Casting the net a little wider, it is arguable whether any jockey rides Lingfield better than Kirby, and his 801 rides here since 2009 have netted 145 winners, and a profit at SP.

Filthy, meanwhile, boasts a 27% hit rate at the course in the past year, too.

They pair up today with Mallory Heights, a course and distance winner who is returning to the scene of that victory for the first time in three starts. As is more often the case than the market allows for, some horses have a marked preference for all weather surfaces over turf; and within that, for one particular track over the others.

It’s too early to say whether Mallory Heights will become a Lingfield specialist after just one run here. But he won his sole start at the Surrey course last December, when ridden by Adam Kirby. Kirby rode him last time, too, when they were well beaten in a turf handicap and no doubt he got off and told the guv’nor, “Send him back to the beach”.

Mallory Heights has dropped back to within two pounds of that winning run (78 versus 76), and his all weather handicap form of 41521 is attractive in the context of a weak-looking race. That string improves to 4121 when looking at his mile and a half runs only. It’s a Class 4, the same as that December contest, so there are no concerns about the quality of the opposition especially, though Cousin Khee may prove to be a bigger danger than his 14/1 quotes imply.

With trainer and jockey both in fine form, and the horse optimally proven by conditions, I recommend a one point win bet on Mallory Heights at 11/2, with any of SkyBet, BetVictor, PP, Coral, or Betfair Sportsbook…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.