Double Dutch, 29th July 2014
A 2-1 yesterday, with us essentially down to a single pick in leg one after Gold Chain drifted like the Drifters clutching a piece of driftwood in a very strong current. She was ridden with… let’s say, extreme patience. Stayed on but never dangerous. She’s certainly one to keep an eye on.
Mister Uno found just the up-stepping tripper, Thorntoun Care, too good, and I admit I read that one wrong.
The second leg was easy enough, of course, as Sureness won at 2/1. Ho hum.
To today, and I’m dodging the handicaps…
Monday’s results were as follows:
Mister Uno: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Gold Chain: 6th at 8/1 (adv 5/1)
Sureness: won at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
Tender Surprise: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
301 winning selections from 1066 = 28.24%
99 winning bets in 278 days = 35.61%
P/L : +61.16pts (+10.96% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A dodgy old seller to kick things off, but they are mostly exposed, and two have revealed a good bit more than the rest. That pair, Phase Shift and Byron Blue, are rated a stone and more clear of the other rated runners, who should pose no threat.
Phase Shift has found winning tricky, but has placed on three of his last four starts, and this trip looks ideal. I’m not certain about the ground, but trainer Brian Ellison knows what he’s doing: he’s won with five of his eleven runners at this track since 2009.
Byron Blue loves quick ground, and this son of Dylan Thomas should also appreciate the step up to two and a half miles here. Curiously – to me, at least – he’s stepping up beyond two and a quarter miles for the first time in an eleven race hurdling career. I reckon it could be the making of him, at this basement level, anyway.
The unknown is Don Cantillon’s Oscars Way. The Don is a law unto himself and, though he’s not been backed yet, any major money for him would be material most likely.
We’ll stay at Worcester, and row straight back into the next race, a novices’ hurdle. This also looks a match, despite the presence of a Ferguson/McCoy horse further down the lists. In truth, Burgravio is bred to be a lot better than he’s shown on the level in France, and in one spin over hurdles. He could improve, but he’ll really need to.
Far safer options are Discay and Breaking The Bank, both recent winners.
Discay was rated 85 on the flat before being bought by Dr Richard Newland. The Doc is almost as shrewd as the Don, and a good bit more ‘by the book’, and this year’s Grand National-winning trainer looks to have a nice recruit here. A winner on his debut over hurdles, he’s been placed twice since in better races, including when second to Breaking The Bank here at the end of June.
That was over two miles, and he’ll appreciate this return to two and a half. Whether the quick ground is ideal, I don’t know. But that’s why we get two bites at the apple.
Breaking The Bank has won two of his last three starts, both at two miles, and he has to prove he stays the extra 25% today. If he does, he still has to concede seven pounds to Discay. But he does love the sound of his hooves clopping on the fast ground, and he’s a winner around here last time.
It’s pretty hard to make a compelling case for anything else, and if we get through leg one, it will be deeply disappointing not to get the job done here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Phase Shift / Discay @ 5.05/1 (15/8 & 11/10 : SkyBet)
Phase Shift / Breaking The Bank @ 6.57/1 (15/8 & 13/8: Betfred)
Byron Blue / Discay @ 5.3/1 (2/1 & 11/10 : BetVictor)
Byron Blue / Breaking The Bank @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : bet365)