Double Dutch, 30th July 2014
Well, it was hardly an exciting way to notch the 100, but we have that monkey off our backs now and can kick on, courtesy of a short priced double at Worcester last evening. Both returned the same price as they were advised, meaning a small
Monday’s results were as follows:
Byron Blue: won at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Phase Shift: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Discay: won at 11/10 (adv 11/10)
Breaking The Bank: 4th at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
Results to date:
303 winning selections from 1070 = 28.32%
100 winning bets in 279 days = 35.84%
P/L : +62.31pts (+11.13% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s really tricky today, with non-maiden non-handicaps (my favourites for Double Dutch) in very short supply. So I’ll take our first chance in a small field, but quite competitive, mile handicap.
Two that stand out on Instant Expert are Mr McLaren and Brown Eyed Honey. Brown Eyed Honey has won three of her five career starts, and three of her last four. That trio includes a victory on her only good to firm run, as well as two Kempton poly jobs. Having probably failed to stay when stepped up from seven to ten furlongs on her penultimate outing, she bolted up when dropped back to a mile last time, so she’s well suited to conditions this afternoon.
Mr McLaren has also had just five races to date, and has done most of his running at seven furlongs. Four outings at that range have netted a full set of medals (gold, silver and a bronze), with his win last time out giving the impression that the penny is now starting to drop. He’s not certain to stay the mile, but finished it off nicely enough that last day, and is worth a chance with the Honey as a back stop.
It is, as I’ve said, a competitive little race and there are others with chances, but we’ll ride our luck with this pair.
They’ll have barely crossed the line in leg one before leg two is set to go, and our quickfire double takes us to another short field with many chances. I’m drawn to the obvious form of Kie and the likelihood of improvement of Mister Nibbles.
Kie is trained by Donald McCain and has won two of his last four races… over fences. This being a hurdle race, he’s looking to take advantage of what might be a lenient mark. He hasn’t run over hurdles since the Cheltenham Festival of 2012, but the fact he ran there tells you something of his merit. He was a good second in Class 3 the time before that, and he’s in fine form.
A winner of his only previous start here at Perth, Kie will probably try to make all.
Against him, Mister Nibbles is another horse that could be potentially a bit better than this. He was unlucky when unseated in the lead at the last in a Class 3 novice hurdle at Ayr two starts back, and he looked to be getting the better of the argument with Vibrato Valtat that day.
Since then he was stepped up in trip and class for a two and a half mile Punchestown Festival handicap, and this two mile handicap in a small field will be much more to his tastes. The ground should pose no problems and, with Kie likely to make is a stiff test, Mister Nibbles looks like the one to be running on at the finish.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Brown Eyed Honey / Kie @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : BetVictor, SkyBet)
Brown Eyed Honey / Mister Nibbles @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Mr McLaren / Kie @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor, SkyBet)
Mr McLaren / Mister Nibbles @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : PP)