Stat of the Day, 30th July 2014
Hero de Villeneuve ran a cracker yesterday, but was given too much to do by jockey Brian Hughes and didn’t quite get there. Although third, he was beaten just a length and a half at 3/1 (advised 5/2).
In a week of ‘nothing much doing’ from a statistical perspective, we’ll stay at the same venue today, and potentially take on yesterday’s SotD horse (gulp), in the…
Seven runners go to post for this two mile furlong handicap chase, and two of them ran in Hero’s race last night: Bless The Wings and Hero de Villeneuve himself!
It’s possible that one or both of that pair could absent, leaving five, but there should still be plenty of early pace, courtesy of Harry’s Whim. That one always wants to lead, and other prominent types are Strobe and Ainsi Fideles, meaning that despite the short field, this will take some getting if they all do what they normally do.
I’m taking a chance on Scotch Warrior, who is currently a 9/1 shot BOG. R Mike Smith’s ten year old is well named, for he absolutely loves Perth. He also loves this distance and good ground, which he’s promised today.
On good ground at Perth at 2m5f, his form reads 1121, and the last trio of those results were achieved in today’s Class 3. Callum Bewley has ridden him the last twice and gets on well with the horse. He also takes off a useful seven pounds in weight, meaning Scotch Warrior is essentially carrying 11-01 and rated 124 this afternoon. That’s three pounds lower than his last winning mark of 127, achieved at Ayr in April.
He’s a bit bigger than we normally side with on SotD these days, so I’m going to suggest a rare half point each way at 9/1 BOG with Paddy. However, DO check the odds as at time of writing only Mr Power has prices up. I’ll try to update this before I leave for Race Maker duties…!
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