Stat of the Day, 1st August 2014
It was a frustrating end to July, as Annaluna failed by half a length to close down the pace-making Riptide. I’d flagged that 8/1 shot as the only conceivable danger, despite a 6/4 poke in the race. It was a solid run, but we can’t get paid on all of ’em… alas.
I’m taking a chance against an odds on jolly tonight in what looks a two horse race, the…
A progressive three year old called Fray heads the field in this fillies’ handicap. And well she might after a three length win at Newmarket over this trip last time out in a Class 5 handicap. But this is a step up – to Class 4 – and rattling fast ‘firm’ ground, both of which will ask slightly more of her.
She can overcome those questions, of course, as odds of 8/15 suggest. But there’s a very solid alternative in the shape of Sonnetation, a course and going specialist of some merit. Sonnetation’s last two visits to Bath have resulted in firm ground one mile wins, the more recent – last time out – in today’s Class 4.
She’s incredibly consistent, with very quick ground and a mile the key. Under such circumstances, she has form of 4121, and has improved from a rating of 46 to one of 69, going up just one pound for that last day win.
She’s likely to lead here, and that can be a decent tactic: if they crawl and then sprint, she’ll be best placed to hit the wire first. Steve Drowne legs up for the first time and, with his old guv’nor saddling the odds-on jolly, he’ll be super keen to get this job done. With trainer Jim Boyle in fine form too, everything looks set for another game effort from Sonnetation, who is available for a one point win bet at 9/2 with totesport and Betfred.
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