Double Dutch, 2nd August 2014
Off came the wheels yesterday, as both legs were sunk. Might as well get the clunkers out in pairs, eh?
Onwards, and a lot of competitive action, as is the case on most Saturdays, but I’ve found a pair of interesting races to go at.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Strategic Order: 5th at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Cafe Cortado: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Cara’s Request: 6th at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Snow Bay: 7th at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
307 winning selections from 1079 = 28.45%
102 winning bets in 282 days = 36.17%
P/L : +68.19pts (+12.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is a mile and a half all aged handicap, and the three-year-olds get plenty of weight at this time of year. In fact, they get exactly eleven pounds weight for age over this trip. That means that both Leaderene and Craggaknock look pretty well treated.
Leaderene is on a hat-trick after wins at around this distance the last twice, and she has been raised a fair enough seven pounds for that latest success. She’s a typically hardy Johnston filly, and is bred – by Selkirk out of a Shareef Dancer mare – to stay. It’s perfectly possible that she’s improving quicker than the handicapper is raising her, and there’s a strong chance she’ll try to make all under Franny Norton.
If she falters today, the one that might take advantage is Cragganock, another for whom the combination of a trip and quick ground has seen significant upgrade in performance. And again, as a son of Derby winner, Authorized, that’s hardly surprising. He won a Class 5 distance handicap last time and steps up to Class 4 today, but with just five career starts to his name, a ratings rise of eight looks fine. Jason Hart rode him to victory last time and legs up again.
A good maiden, and not a two horse race by any manner of means. But the pair most likely to win offer a solid platform to round out a potentially tidy Saturday double.
Lethal Legacy represents home favourites, Hannon and Hughes, and his debut fourth to Nafaqa is already looking fair form, with Prince Gagarin, a nose in front our pick, winning yesterday. The son of Alfred Nobel had a troubled trip that day, and should improve from first to second run.
The biggest danger to the jolly could very well be Dutch Connection, who I hope wins in order to frank the Faydhan form. He was beaten six lengths by that 2000 Guineas fancy, but was himself over a length better than third placed Speedy Move, who subsequently won a six furlong maiden by over three lengths. In other words, the form looks solid at least.
Secret Brief and Fieldsman are two of the main dangers, the former having been off for a couple of months since his debut, during which time he is presumed to have improved; and the latter not far behind Lethal Legacy on both of their inaugural racecourse efforts.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Leaderene / Lethal Legacy @ 9.5/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : bet365, Coral)
Leaderene / Dutch Connection @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Coral)
Craggaknock / Lethal Legacy @ 12.51/1 (10/3 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Craggaknock / Dutch Connection @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : PP)