Stat of the Day, 4th August 2014
A miserable week for SotD was completed on Saturday, as the fancied Nullarbor Sky could fare no better than third, at 3/1. After a 13/2 winner on the opening day of my stint it has been frustrating to all but wipe out that profit with a run of nearly’s and not even close’s.
It’s a trainer/jockey combo today, in the…
James Fanshawe is a brilliant trainer, and one who ekes out a lot from some mainly mediocre animals in his care. The other thing with Fanshawe is how well he places his horses: he enters them in the right races, generally.
Freddie Tylicki has been riding a lot for the master of Pegasus Stables in recent times, and in the past year they’ve teamed up on 34 horses here at Kempton, winning on nine of them and making the frame six more times. That 26.47% win rate was good for a profit of 20.5 units (in handicaps, those figures improve to seven from 21 – 33% – for a profit of 23 units), and Fanshawe has been in fine form in recent days.
Indeed, on the geegeez racecard form indicators, he ticks three of our four boxes – 14, C1, and C09+. That means his strike rate in the last 14 days is 20%+ win and/or 51%+ place; his strike rate at Kempton in the past year hits those same percentage marks; and his win strike rate at the track since the start of 2009 is 16%+.
The horse in question this evening is one of a pair with which the Fanshawe-Tylicki axis goes to war, Tahchee. [The other, Gale Force, runs in the fillies’ maiden at 2.45]
After three runs in maidens, Tahchee was given an initial handicap rating of 59 and was brought here to race over course and distance. He was beaten just over a length in fourth that day, in Class 5. Then, on his only subsequent start, he travelled to Southwell but – as with many horses – he didn’t really act on the track.
Now back at Kempton, and dropped in grade to Class 6, this looks a good opportunity for the son of Sleeping Indian to get off the mark. He should be near peak fitness on his third run of the year; he has the inside draw and a prominent running style to use it; and he should get a lead into the race from one or more of Mimi Luke, Ellingham or Baars Causeway.
In short, it has the feel of a ‘now or never’ race for Tahchee, and the trainer / jockey combination give plenty of cause for optimism. He’s generally available at 9/2 and I’ve taken that price, best odds guaranteed, with BetVictor. One point win.
[STOP PRESS: It’s been pointed out that PP are offering money back as a free bet if our selection is 2nd or 3rd in the race. They’re ‘only’ 4/1 as I write, but that’s a healthy concession and well worth considering.]
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