Stat of the Day, 5th August 2014
Phew! I’ll admit to a feeling of relief after Tahchee did the business, easily, yesterday teatime. With Chris back today, and back in the SotD hot seat tomorrow, I was very keen to ensure a continuation of the excellent profitable work he’s been doing in recent months. And, having gone all of last week without a ‘chicken dinner’, it was great to watch Freddie Tylicki in control throughout the race and cruise home two lengths clear of his field at 4/1. Our 9/2 was marginally better, but 4/1 was plenty good enough too.
I’m taking a similar tack this evening, in the…
It’s another day for a trainer/jockey combo angle, and there were more than usual to choose from. I eventually discarded Johnston / Fanning with Special Fighter (3.15 Catterick, too short at 7/4); resisted the urge to nominate a Freddie/Fanshawe Kempton repeater (Swordbearer, 7.00 Kempton); and finally settled on Chris Wall and Ashley Morgan with Dire Straits.
Chris Wall is another excellent trainer, and his last 100 runners have yielded 21 winners and a profit of 50.21 units. Those are absolutely staggeringly phenomenal numbers: a 21% strike rate and a 50% ROI!
Here at Kempton, and specifically in handicaps, he has run 122 horses, of which 26 won (21% strike rate again). They were worth a profit of 45 points at SP.
Of those, 14 were having a first handicap run, with six winning (43% strike rate). They were worth a profit of 43.5 points at SP, an ROI of 310% !
Ashley Morgan rides well, and when teaming up with Wall at Kempton in the last year, they’re two from eight, for a profit of 31 points. Tonight, they join forces with handicap debutant Dire Straits, a horse whose three runs at a mile were always going to be in search of a mark. Today, stepped up 50% in trip to a mile and a half, this son of Teofilo out of a mare who won over a mile as a two year old, should be able to reveal something closer to his true level of ability.
Expect him to shake off form figures of 080 and go close. 1 point win at BOG 6/1 generally is the play.
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