Stat of the Day, 6th August 2014
Hello, everyone, it’s good to be back! Many thanks to Matt for stepping into the breach at very short notice, as I grabbed a late deal to treat the wife to a spot of Moroccan sunshine for our first child-free break for 10 years!
Clare (the wife) sends her thanks too, as she was able to prise me away from a PC in the school holidays for the first time in ages! As it was, we had an absolutely great time and I even found a backstreet bookies in the old residential quarter of Agadir, although the wife wasn’t overimpressed! 😀
Mind you, looking back over the results in my absence, you were more than well looked after with some good performances and some decent-priced winners. Unfortunately, Matt was unable to sign off with a winner as Dire Straits was pretty a pretty disappointing 3/1 fav (Matt did advise you to get on at 6/1, though = VALUE!).
They do say that if at first you don’t succeed, then you’re to try again, so it’s the same venue for Wednesday and another 3yr old who contests the…
Where the call is a 1pt win bet at 100/30 BOG (Paddy Power) on Ralph Beckett’s 3yr old filly, Sleeper.
Firstly I’m drawn to Mr Beckett’s overall record over a number of years, where he has been profitable to back blindly at odds of 16/1 or shorter.
Since 2007, 432 of his 2409 such runners have been victorious at a strike rate of 17.9% which, in turn, has generated has generated 356.5pts profit at an ROI of just under 15%. Not a bad return at all, off a good sample size with little filtering involved.
We can then turn our sights to his record here on the All/Weather and I’ve found that since 2008 in races of a mile and beyond at this track, he has a 40/169 record.
This 23.7% strike rate has, so far, yielded 66.4pts for his followers as a rate of 39.3% above stakes. His record in handicap races over those distances is even better at 24/94 (25.5% SR) for 52.3pts (+55.6% ROI). His horses are 3/10 for 4.2pts this year in the handicaps.
Of the handicappers sent off below 6/1, 19 of 42 (45.2%) were successful, producing level stakes profits of 38.04pts, or a 90.6% return on your money. And recent history suggests there’s more to come with an 11/21 record producing 30.2pts since the start of 2013.
As we’ve mentioned before, 3yr olds are very favourably treated at the weights in these open age handicaps (you’re probably sick of Matt and myself banging on about “weight for age”), but the allowance really takes its toll at trips of 1m4f and beyond and naturally some trainers are very adept at exploiting this angle.
Sleeper runs off a mark of 66 here, but carries 11lbs less than the other 66-rated runner in the race and that must improves our chances.
In fact, Mr Beckett has attempted to exploit this angle on 61 occasions since 2008 and his 16 winners represent a very healthy strike rate of 26.2%, whilst the 30.1pts profits are an excellent return of 49.3%.
47 of those 61 runners have run in the 6/4 to 10/1 odds bracket, netting 15 winners (31.9% SR) and 42.8 pts profit (+91% ROI).
And…. (yes, there’s more) In what is predominently “turf time” ie March to November, Ralph Beckett has had some considerable success switching horses from the turf for a first crack at the A/W surfaces.
Since 2010, 99 of his horses have switched over to A/W racing for the first time and 22 of them (22.2% SR) have been winners. The resultant 106.1pts profit is the equivalent of a whopping 107.2% of stakes and is an angle often overlooked by the market.
Sleeper, herself, ran three fairly nondescript efforts in maidens over 8f and 8.5f earlier in the year, before switching to 1m 3.5f for her handicap debut last time out. She relished the extra distance and the much quicker ground and went on to score by a comfortable couple of lengths.
She was ridden by Andrea Atzeni for the first time day and the same jockey will be in situ again for this encounter.
There’s more to come from this one (in my opinion, at least!) and with the added benefit of the weight allowance, I’d expect her to be finishing strongly and a decent turn of foot late on could well be they here to a 1pt win bet on Sleeper at 100/30 BOG with Paddy Power.
Other firms are, of course, available and you can see their prices very quickly, if you just…
…click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Kempton
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