Stat of the Day, 7th August 2014
Andrea Atzeni was made to work very hard to earn his fee aboard Sleeper at Kempton on Wednesday, but when the penny finally dropped, the filly stayed on well to win by a length.
There was a small 5% Rule 4 deduction to our early 100/30 price, but we still got paid out at 3.17/1, more than double the 6/4 SP.
Back to the turf for more evening action on Thursday in the…
And a 5/1 BOG bet with Paddy Power for Charlie Appleby’s handicap debutant Mythical Madness.
This horse has shown plenty of promise in his two starts to date. He was beaten by just three parts of a length on debut in June over today’s 1m2f trip at Redcar, before landing a very comfortable 3 length victory at Windsor almost three weeks ago, also over this trip.
Trainer Charlie Appleby has only had 16 runners here at Sandown in his short training career so far, but 4 of them have already won and if we look at those priced at 5/1 or shorter we get 4 winners from 11 for a strike rate of 36.4%. The level stakes profits of 3.15pts might look modest, but they actually represent a return above stakes of 28.6%.
Charlie has also had some success with his mid-quality handicap debutants, particularly at the sharper end of the market. In fact in Class 3 to 5 handicap events, his sub-8/1 debutants have won 9 of 28 races (32.1% SR) for profits of 13.5pts, or 48.2% of stakes.
Mythical Madness has already shown an aptitude for this trip and that comes as little surprise with him being a colt by Dubawi (and at 320,000 Guineas, a fairly expensive one!). Dubawi’s offspring excel in the longer trip races and in flat handicaps of 1m2f and beyond have won 59 of 234 races (25.2% SR) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter. This excellent record has produced 167.7pts profit at an ROI of 71.7%.
The record of the Dubawi clan over today’s trip is 23/97 (23.7% SR) for 40.5pts (+41.8% ROI) profit. These numbers might be not be quite as good as the longer trips, but are pretty decent nevertheless.
This is a competitive little race and whilst Mythical Madness might look a bit of a punt here, there looks to be some value in his current odds to justify the selection. he’s certainly not as exposed as most of his rivals here and I’d expect plenty of improvement yet to come from this one. This, of course, might make a 1pt win bet on Mythical Madness a bit of a steal at 5/1 BOG, time will tell.
That price is with Paddy Power, using some of Wednesday’s winnings, whilst 4/1 BOG seems to be next best on offer. the easiest way to keep an eye on the market, of course, is to…
…click here for the latest betting on the 7.25 Sandown
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