Double Dutch, 7th August 2014
It was almost the perfect return to the fray for me yesterday, but we were ultimately undone by a flying finish from an overlooked 8/1 winner, denying us a 9.75/1 double by a neck, which allied to my 3.17/1 winner from Stat of the Day would have produced a tremendous 43.8/1 treble on my first day back “at work”.
Imshivalla was a pillar to post winner of our first race and stayed on well to score by a length and a half as the 6/4 favourite. Our advised price of 9/4 was reduced by 25% due to a non-runner, but we still managed to beat the SP, giving us a reasonable stake for race 2.
Wintour Leap was then later involved in a three way tussle down the home straight and just as it looked like she’d finally overcome the challenge, she was headed virtually on the line by Topaling, who swept down the outside to win by a neck.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Imshivalla: won at 6/4 (adv 1.69/1 after R4)
El Beau: 3rd at 13/8 (adv 2.06/1 after R4)
Wintour Leap: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Bowberry: u/p at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
310 winning selections from 1095 = 28.31%
102 winning bets in 286 days = 35.66%
P/L : +60.19pts (+10.49% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a very near miss yesterday, here are my selections for Thursday…
Jockey Hayley Moore has won this race twice in the last five years and won it last time around. She looks in a good position for the hat-trick aboard Gabrial The Terror, who seems to like it over this track and trip, finishing first and second on his two previous C&D efforts. The latest of those was just three weeks ago, when beaten by a couple of lengths. He wasn’t entirely convincing in the finish that day and it is hoped/expected that the application of cheekpieces will do the trick here, allied to the jockey’s 3lb claim. The market seems to back up this view and has installed him as one of two 9/4 BOG joint favourites…
…alongside my other pick City Ground, who is to be ridden by the the Queen of Lady Amateur races, Serena Brotherton. Ignore Serena’s chances in any of these types of races at your peril. She has a 21% strike rate in these contests and a level stakes ROI of 82.6%. It also helps if she’s on baord a horse with a chance of winning, of course and in City Ground she has just that. She has ridden this one to a runner-up finish in three consecutive races of late and has also won on him twice from five previous efforts. He runs off the same mark as his last two outings and the presence of the race’s best jockey could well be enough to stop that run of “2’s“.
Bladewood Girl is better known for her performances on the A/W, but finished a creditable second over course and distance here three starts ago. She followed that up with another placed effort on turf at Brighton, before going down by just a nose and a head at Lingfield last time out. She’s a consistent sort and has been in good nick for a while now, finishing 124233 in her last six outings. She runs off the same mark (54) as her last three outings, so she should be competitive at 9/4 BOG in a fairly poor looking race.
In these apprentice jockeys’ races, it often pays to have a horse with course form and one of the better jockeys and this is hopefully the case with Jonny Skull, who has won six times here at Yarmouth, including 3 over course and distance. He hasn’t won for almost a year since his last C&D victory here, but is weighted suitably for a return to the winners’ enclosure, especially with Jack Gilligan’s 5lb claim to consider. He ran a good race here last night to finish second over a mile and provided there’s no ill effects from that, the drop back in trip will help his chances of a win at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
City Ground / Bladewood Girl @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Boylesports, Stan James)
City Ground / Jonny Skull @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, BetFred)
Gabrial The Terror / Bladewood Girl @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James)
Gabrial The Terror / Jonny Skull @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, BetFred)