Stat of the Day, 8th August 2014
No joy at Sandown yesterday, I’m afraid. Adam Kirby’s orders seemed to be to hold Mythical Madness up at the back of the pack for the first mile of the 10 furlongs, before kicking for home.
The plan appeared to working perfectly well and they started to make headway inside the final quarter mile, but the horse then hung left and got involved in a bit of bumping before being outpaced. He did rally again, to get within 4 lengths of the winner, but a 5th place at 4/1 was the best we could manage.
Once again, we’d taken a bigger early price than SP, which is always a good thing from a value perspective, but it’s a red minus 1 ” in the P/L column, which I aim to recover in Friday’s…
Where I’ve decided to take on the fairly short favourite with a 1pt win bet
on Prim and Proper at 3/1 BOG.
Prim and Proper is a three year old filly trained by Brendan Powell and was a winner at today’s Class 6 level two starts ago. She stayed on well to score by three parts of a length over Fruit Pastille who has also gone on to win since. Our runner looked to be doing just enough that day and looked like she wanted further than the one mile trip.
She was a disappointing 8th place next time (and last time) out, but I rather feel that both a step up in class and running within nine days of that win contributed to her poor showing. She drops back down to Class 6 again today and steps up 2f in trip to tackle 1m2f for the first time. Her entry here is statistically interesting for a couple of reasons…
1. Since the start of the 2011 season, 3 yr old horses stepping up a couple of furlongs in a flat handicap after failing to make the frame last time out have gone on to win 138 of 861 (16% SR) of their races at the longer distance, when sent off between 2/1 and 12/1. The resultant 193.6pts profit represents a healthy 22.5% return on stakes, especially from a large sample size.
2. In that same time frame, Brendan Powell has dropped 64 horses down 1 class for a handicap contest and the ten winners from that group of horses gives a strike rate of 15.6% and an ROI of some 69.4% achieved via 44.4pts profits.
Incidentally, 3 yr old horses in UK flat handicaps from 2011/14 running at the same class or one grade lower as an unplaced effort last time out have a 49/145 (33.8% SR) when sent out at odds of 4/1 or shorter and upped in trip by a couple of furlongs, as may very well be the case here. Those winners have produced 62.8pts (+43.3% ROI) profits to date and those dropping in class have won 20 of 51 (39.2% SR) efforts for 33.9pts (+66.4% ROI) profit.
I’ve not been entirely convinced by the favourite of this race when I’ve seen/backed her previously and I’m not sure she gets this 10f trip just yet either. I think she’s too short at 6/4 BOG, but that does offer the chance of some value from our 1pt win bet on Prim and Proper at 3/1 BOG.
I’ve still got some of Wednesday’s profits in my Paddy Power account, so I’ll be playing with that money, but you can also get the same price from Bet365.
Most firms haven’t priced this up just yet (1.00am!), but when they do, you can…
…click here for the latest betting on the 3.10 Brighton
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