Stat of the Day, 9th August 2014
It looked like we were heading back to the winners’ enclosure for a while at Brighton on Friday, as Jim Crowley appeared to have ridden a perfect race aboard Prim & Proper.
She was held up until the gaps appeared on the inside and moved up alongside the rail to assume control with a furlong to go and having been sent off at 2/1, our 3/1 BOG bet was looking like good value indeed.
At this point, she looked every inch the winner, but the wandering Cameley Dawn had other ideas, despite looking a tricky ride. She hung quite badly left to draw alongside our filly and then kicked for home with 100yds to run.
Our runner had no answer and was one paced, eventually settling for the runner-up berth, beaten by 2.5 lengths in the end.
Last one of the week, so I’m looking to finish on a high with success in Saturday’s…
An open age handicap over 2 miles that has been won by a three year old horse in each of the last two seasons, aided no doubt by the generous weight allowance afforded to them for their lack of experience. That allowance comes to 15lbs for this race and we have two three years old in this field and it’s the bottom weight Late Shipment that interests me the most.
After a fairly nondescript 2yr old season, where he showed little in 1m maidens, he came back to win impressively on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut at Lingfield in April, where he won a 12f race by a good 10 lengths easing down!
He ran well enough next time out to finish second at Catterick a week later, but then failed to make the frame in his next three outings before returning to form here at Newmarket a fortnight when comfortably winning by 6 lengths over 1m5f and it is hoped that the team can take advantage of this return to form.
Late Shipment is trained by Mark Johnston, whose record in handicap races at Newmarket over the last four seasons stands at 33 winners from 227 runners, a respectable 14.5% strike rate generating 158.3pts profit at an ROI of 69.7%, which is very good indeed.
The optimum price range for those runners is 13/8 to 12/1, where the figures read 29/138 (21% SR) for 102.9pts (+74.6% ROI) profit.
Since 2008, Mr Johnston has stepped 1262 horses in the same 13/8 to 12/1 range up in trip by 1 to 4 furlongs (3f rise today) for a handicap contest. 232 winners from that group represents a strike rate of 18.4% and the 265.8pts level stakes profits are worth 21% of all stakes invested.
He has been particularly successful at stepping horses up to today’s 2 mile trip and if there’s money for his runners, we should take note. 21/51 of his 2-milers stepped up in trip and sent off at 15/2 or shorter have gone on to win for a 41.2% strike rate and 42.9pts (+84.1% ROI) profit.
If we now revisit the weight for age allowance I mentioned at the top of the piece, Mark Johnston is one of the leading exponents at exploiting this rule and his 3 yr olds priced at 14/1 or shorter in open age handicaps at 1m4f or further have won 63 of the 256 races they’ve contested since 2008. This is a 24.6% strike rate and the resultant 82.5pts profit gives an ROI of 32.2% with a record here at Newmarket of 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 15.8pts (+75.4% ROI).
The last set of stats I’m going to throw your way today is easier to explain verbally than in text, so please bear with me. It’s not trainer specific as those above and relates to horses who have recently won after a string of poor efforts. The easiest way for me to write this down is probably in list form, so we’re looking for a horse that fits the following criteria…
…Running on the flat at a mile or beyond in a race of Class 1 to 5 (C3 today) / the race is within 3f of the trip ran last time out (up 3f today) / won last time out after at least three consecutive unplaced efforts (5661 form) / priced below 16/1…
Horses fitting the bill over the four seasons have won 95 of 591 (16.1% SR) races for level stakes profits of 198pts to date, at an ROI of some 33.5%.
Late Shipment fits the above criteria perfectly and allied to his trainer’s record here at Newmarket and his ability to get his three year olds to win these open age handicaps means I’m confident of a return from a 1pt win bet at 7/2 BOG. I’m on with SkyBet for this one, but Bet365 are also offering the same odds, so you shouldn’t have any problems getting the same deal as me!
For all the other firms’ prices…
…click here for the latest betting on the 5.15 Newmarket
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS