Double Dutch, 9th August 2014
Friday went pretty much the same way as Thursday and it’s turning out to be a fairly decent week for us, even if we’re not exactly smashing any pots.
Two more winners, another runner-up and an also ran was the final tally one the dust had settled and with the bonus of another forecast at 9.63/1, it was another profitable day. Both favourites won our races, but unfortunately our second contest was affected by a 10p Rule 4 deduction reducing the final payout on the double to 6.64/1.
That’s a little on the low side for us, but it still represented a 90% profit above stakes on the day’s doubles.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Fire Fighting: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Muhawalah: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
The forecast paid 9.63/1 here.
Water Hole: won at 5/4 (adv 27/20 after R4)
Etaab: u/p at 13/2 (adv 2.48/1 after R4)
Results to date:
314 winning selections from 1103 = 28.47%
104 winning bets in 288 days = 36.11%
P/L : +66.14pts (+11.44% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last set of selections for the week, so hopefully these will let us end on a high…
Only five go to post here, but it could be a cracking nursery sprint we have on our hands. If things go to plan, I’d expect this to go to Patience Alexander who has already shown plenty in her three starts to date. She was an easy nine lengths winner on debut at Wolverhampton over today’s minimum trip and backed that up with another win in a Listed contest, where she beat the highly-rated Tiggy Wiggy by half a length. Tiggy Wiggy has gone on to perform really well since, too. Patience Alexander’s final run was her first defeat, but there was no disgrace in finishing 3rd (beaten by two lengths) in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot.
A repeat of any of her three previous outings could well be good enough to land this, now dropped back to the 5f trip and stepping down in class. She looks an interesting placement here and if she can cope with conceding weight on her first battle with the boys, she could well be a winner once again and 2/1 BOG seems to be the best price around.
There are, however, a couple of big threats to her due to the amount of weight she’s conceding and I’m going to pass over the favourite who runs from out of the handicap with a claiming jockey on board in favour of Squats as my second pick. Squats is trained by the in-form William Haggas, who also has an excellent record here at Haydock. I’ve nothing against Ryan Tate who rides the favourite, but in what might be a tight contest here, I just think that Joe Fanning is a safer option when push comes to shove.
Joe’s mount, Squats, is no mug either and has some solid form behind him, despite looking a little drawn out towards the end of his last two races. The drop back to 5f will help there, as will the 14lbs he gets from Patience Alexander, making him rather attractively priced here at 7/2 BOG.
Maverick Wave has an impressive pedigree out of an American grade 2 winner over a mile and 9f and comes here boasting a 2/2 record. He hasn’t just won both his starts to date, though, he has won pretty comfortably on both occasions, particularly when scoring by 4 lengths at Lingfield last time out, despite it being his first run for 10 months. That was just over a fortnight ago and I’d expect him to come on for having that run. He has, of course, gone up in the weights, but I’m not convinced he’s high enough just yet to stop him.
The main concern, I suppose is the soft ground, but on that score I’d say all the runners here have the same doubts about them and I’m happy to trust John Gosden’s view on how he’ll handle it today, as John seeks to retain the race he won last year. Stan James is currently the best in town for this one at 9/4 BOG.
The one I’d expect to be the biggest challenge here is the similarly unbeaten (2 from 2) Invincible Fresh, who notched up back to back wins inside a month earlier in the summer. He has been allowed a short five weeks break to recharge the batteries and is an interesting runner who holds a couple of Group 2 entries for the future. Still very unexposed after just two starts and has shaped as though he’ll want further in future, this step up to a mile should suit him today.
He hasn’t yet run on soft ground, but he’s out of Princess Serena, whose offspring have some decent form on soft, so that is seen as a positive here and makes him a viable backup prospect at a generally available 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Patience Alexander / Maverick Wave @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Patience Alexander / Invincible Fresh @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : generally available)
Squats / Maverick Wave @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Squats / Invincible Fresh @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : generally available)