Double Dutch, 11th August 2014
It looked like we were going to end a decent week with yet another double, but we were ultimately foiled in race 2, as both Maverick Wave and Invincible Fresh surrendered their unbeaten records to Dream Spirit, who prevailed by half a length.
This was unfortunate, as we’d a nice little stake on that race, after Squats had been a 7/2 winner for us up at Haydock, where as I predicted Joe Fanning just had a little bit more than Ryan Tate in a tight finish.
One 7/2 winner from two races is no disaster, but doesn’t bring any money in, I’m afraid!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Squats: won at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Patience Alexander: 4th at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Maverick Wave: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Invincible Fresh: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
315 winning selections from 1107 = 28.46%
104 winning bets in 289 days = 35.99%
P/L : +64.14pts (+11.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Fairly poor racing on offer today, but we might just have a couple of races we could do well in here…
Ivy Port has done most of her running on the A/W to date, where she has 2 wins from 10 and a 50% place strike rate. She’s in decent form and gets to run here off a mark 9lbs lower than she would on the A/W. She runs off 57 here, the same as she did last time out, when only narrowly (nose & head) beaten into third place in a better race than this one at Redcar three weeks ago. The runner up from that race, Push Me, is two from two since then including a win here at Ayr a fortnight ago. If the form holds out from the Redcar race and Ivy Port runs to the same level, she has every chance of taking this one at 11/4 BOG.
The big danger, in my eyes, is Jay Kay, who will have benefited from running at Ffos Las a week ago on his first start for 377 days. He caught the eye in finishing third, despite experiencing traffic problems on his way home. He was only beaten by two and a quarter lengths and I’m not saying he should have won, but he would probably have been a lot closer had he enjoyed the same clear passage that his two victors got out wide.
Two of that field have Ffos Las have already been turned out again, with both Cameley Dawn and Rapunzel going on to win. They finished 8.25 and 11.75 lengths respectively behind Jay Kay and if that form continues here, allied to him coming on for the run, he’s got to be a serious contender at 9/4 BOG.
Where I like Sheriff of Nawton to continue his excellent form since being sent handicapping on turf. Three non-events in A/W maidens have been followed by a run reading 112 on turf in handicap company. The ground was too quick for him (Gd to F) at Redcar last time out, but held on to finish second and he has won on both good and soft ground previously (won over today’s trip on soft). He will be ridden by Sam James today, who not only takes off what might be a valuable 3lbs, but is also in scintillating form, having ridden 9 winners from 30 in the last month and 7 from 14 in the last fortnight. We’re not retiring off odds of 7/4 BOG, but if we’ve won race 1, we’ll have a nice little double to talk about tomorrow.
His chance has been made easier by the defection of Arrowzone, who was sent to Leicester yesterday (and won!) instead, so as an alternate, I’m going to go with Strictly Glitz at what looks a value price of 6/1 BOG. She reared at the start of her last race (at Beverley three weeks ago) and was subsequently quite slow away, conceding ground to her rivals, as if her wide draw (12 of 13!) wasn’t bad enough. She did, however, get going as the race unfolded and was only eventually beaten by a neck at a tasty 25/1.
Jockey Joe Doyle’s claim ensures that she’s effectively 3lbs better off today and if her starting issues have been overcome, another bold performance is on the cards here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Jay Kay / Sheriff of Nawton @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Jay Kay / Strictly Glitz @ 21.75/1 (9/4 & 6/1 : BoyleSports & Paddy Power)
Ivy Port / Sheriff of Nawton @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Ivy Port / Strictly Glitz @ 25.25/1 (11/4 & 6/1 : generally available)