Stat of the Day, 11th August 2014
Late Shipment was a fairly late withdrawal on Saturday, so no bet for us to report on. Thankfully we’d already hit two winners earlier in the week to ensure an overall profit over the six days.
Running a little late this morning, so I’ll crack on with Monday’s selection who runs in the…
And a little bit of a leap of faith I suppose, bearing in mind the new surface. I’ve decided, on a fairly stats-bereft day of mediocre racing, to back Shaun Harris’ 5yr old mare Medam.
Shaun has a good recent record in A/W handicap races with 30 winners from 269 runners (11.2% SR) since the turn of 2011. This has generated 144.1pts profit from 1pt level stakes at a an ROI of 53.6%. The strike rate is a little low for our normal SotD purposes, but that does include plenty of longer priced horses.
The market seems to have a pretty good handle on Shaun’s runners, as can be seen by a record of 20/93 (21.5% SR) with those in the 2/1 to 8/1 bracket. The strike rate has almost doubled and the profit levels have held up pretty well at 37.9pts, a return of 40.7% over stakes.
Neil Farley takes the ride today, claiming a very useful 3lbs and Shaun Harris isn’t shy about using claiming jockeys. In the same time frame as above, he has used a claimer in 112 races and with 12 winners, the strike rate of 10.7% is roughly what you’d expect based on the yard’s overall stats above. Once again, it’s not brilliant, but the 95.7pts (+85.5% ROI) profits certainly make them worth a second look.
As above, the market tends to guide the way and with those sent off below 10/1, the claimer jockeys have ridden 10 winners from 44 (22.7% SR) for 21.7 pts or 49.3% of stakes: much more in line with our requirements here.
Incidentally, in 2014 alone, 3lb claimers have won 4 of 15 races for Shaun Harris for 9.65pts profit.
Medam is a three times course winner, including once over today’s trip and comes here in good nick, having won two of her last three starts whilst Wolverhampton was being overhauled. She won over today’s trip on Lingfield’s Polytrack 17 days ago and although she’s up 4lbs to a career-high mark, she looked to have plenty in hand when dominating/controlling that race and the 4lb rise is probably fair.
If she’s in the mod again today and holds a fairly prominent position (despite a poor draw), she has an excellent chance of extending her current good run, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Medam at 100/30 BOG with BetVictor. That same price is also on offer with Stan James, but they don’t go BOG until 10.00am, whilst 3/1 BOG seems to be the generally available price.
But I’m telling you things that you can see for yourself, when you simply…
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