Stat of the Day, 12th August 2014
Medam was a cracking E/W bet on Monday, as she just about managed to hold on to 2nd place by a nose at odds of 13/2.
Unfortunately, I’d backed her win only at only just above half of that price, such was the late drift away from her in the market after the opening show on course. She opened up at 4/1 before being sent off 2.5pts longer and initially she went well enough, leading with less than a furlong to go.
That, however, was as good as it got for her/us, as she faded very quickly and had no answer to the finishing power of Imaginary who swept her on the way to a fairly comfortable 4 lengths victory.
The defeat aside, the new surface at Wolverhampton looked decent and initial reports from the jockeys were favourable, which can only be a good thing.
My own quest for a “good thing” for Tuesday takes us North for the…
Where, on another tricky day for stats-based betting, I’m siding with Ruth Carr’s Ellaal in this Class 5 handicap over an extended 9 furlongs and the horse is currently priced up at 5/2 BOG, which is admittedly towards the bottom end of where I like to be for SotD.
Ruth Carr has been very successful at this end of the market in recent years, so perhaps we shouldn’t get too fixated on picking a fairly short one for a change. In fact, since the start of the 2011 season, 183 of her handicap entrants have been sent off in the evens to 4/1 price range and 55 (30.1% SR) of them have been returned as winners, producing level stakes profits of 59.8pts (+32.7% ROI) in the process, so perhaps the shortness in price is a good sign.
(From the 55/183 record, there has been two winners from five here at Carlisle for 5.18pts profit)
Ellaal has been kept really busy, clocking up 19 races in the last nine months, but not to the detriment of his form, as he has won five times and made the frame on another five occasions for impressive win and place strike rates. He was a course and distance winner here at Carlisle six starts (and two months) ago, whilst more recently he has run three times in the last three weeks up at Musselburgh, finishing second twice (beaten by 1.25l and 0.5l), before winning last time out (last Friday), when he made all to score by 2.5 lengths.
Over the last three seasons, horses returning to run over a course and distance at which they have previously won, have done pretty well, when the market has fancied them with a record of 16 winners from 53 (30.2% SR) in the 6/4 to 9/2 odds range. This excellent strike rate has yielded 14.4pts (627.1% ROI) profits so far and puts Ellaal‘s win here from June into a little more positive perspective.
Jockey Paul Mulrennan once again takes the ride (he’s 3/6 aboard this horse) and he’s in absolutely blistering form, having upon no less than 17 of his 47 rides in the last fortnight. he was on board Ellaal last time out, when they led from pillar to post and a quick glance at the Geegeez Pace Analysis for this race suggests there’s little pace elsewhere here today. This means there’s every chance of an easy uncontested lead and if he’s allowed to dominate again, he’s going to be difficult to catch and/or pass.
As I said earlier, it’s a little shorter than usual, but there could still be some value in a 1pt win bet on Ellaal at 5/2 BOG. Those odds are from the Betfair Sportsbook, but can also be found at Paddy Power, whilst 9/4 BOG is the next best, as can be seen if you…
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