Double Dutch, 13th August 2014
The Osteopath rolled back the years yesterday with a nice 7/2 win dropping back in to claiming company and putting a couple couple of lengths between him and the pack. He was backed in to be one of three co-favourites at 3/1 alongside the disappointing Greeley’s Love (who I was right to avoid) and Rasselas (who I was wrong to select!)
Unfortunately, a third placed finish from our 5/1 selection, Lil Sophella, was our best result in the later race meaning we drew a blank on the day and although she ran well enough, she never actually looked like winning, finishing 3.5 lengths off the pace, with Appyjack a further place and 2.25 lengths behind.
As with The Osteopath, we beat the market with Lil Sopphella, but that’s scant consolation now.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
The Osteopath: won at 32/1 (adv 7/2)
Rasselas: u/p at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Lil Sophella: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
Appyjack: u/p at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
318 winning selections from 1115 = 28.52%
105 winning bets in 291 days = 36.08%
P/L : +71.52pts (+12.25% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m hoping for a swift return to winning ways with these today…
Where, at 5/2 BOG (Stan James), Rusty Nail looks an interesting proposition at just 6lbs higher than his C&D win last time out. That was five weeks ago and he appeared to have plenty in hand that day and had improved from a prior 2nd over C&D seven weeks earlier. He’s lightly raced (just 10 starts) for a nine year old and with a win and three other places from just seven attempts over fences, has taken to chasing readily. He acts well on today’s going conditions, has good form here at this track and gets the trip well enough.
Of his rivals, I’d probably expect Boosha to cause him the most grief. I now that Unwanted Gift will be well fancied today, but I think that’s more the McCoy factor, rather a true assessment of that horse’s chances and as such, he’ll be sent off at a shorter price than he would normally.
This means we’ll get a bit of value from selecting Boosha and the current odds of 13/2 BOG (Stan James) seems to back up the theory. She’s an interesting one for sure, running off a mark of 71 with Harry Challoner taking a further 3lbs off should make her at least competitive. She was a winner off a lark of 90 in April 2011 over hurdles, but then didn’t run for 32 months and failed to recapture her old hurdling form, when she returned last year.
She finished 490P66 in six hurdles races on her comeback, before it was decided that she’d be sent chasing in July this year and was 4th of 7 at the first attempt. Clearly coming on for that effort, she finished second on her latest attempt over fences despite running from outside of the handicap and any further improvement could see her go close again today.
Bare form on paper wouldn’t necessarily make you believe that Rosslyn Castle would be a good 15/8 BOG favourite here, but he’s a better horse than that form would suggest. He ran well last out on turf to finish second at Newmarket in a much better (2 classes higher) than this one. He stays this trip easily, thanks to his 11 races over hurdles and in what might well prove to be an attritional struggle against conditions/elements, his stamina could very well be the deciding factor here.
Of the remainder, there’s not a great deal to choose between Ninfea and The Ducking Stool, but the latter prevailed by 4 lengths when they net here on the same terms as today, five weeks ago and I see little reason why the form would be reversed, assuming of course that The Ducking Stool gets this trip at the first attempt.
It certainly won’t be the track that proves her undoing if she doesn’t run well today, as she’s a 6-times winner here at Yarmouth already. There probably won’t be much between the three horses I’ve mentioned in this piece, but The Ducking Stool offers the best value of all at 9/2 BOG (Boylesports)
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Rusty Nail / Rosslyn Castle @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Rusty Nail / The Ducking Stool @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Stan James)
Boosha / Rosslyn Castle @ 19.63/1 (13/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Boosha / The Ducking Stool @ 36.50/1 (13/2 & 4/1 : Stan James)