Stat of the Day, 13th August 2014
Ellaal once again finished in the first three home, for the eleventh time in 20 races over the last nine months, but he wasn’t good enough to trouble the leading pair, who pulled a good 4.5 lengths clear of him in the closing stages.
Ellaal had led to the 2 pole, but had no extra once headed with over a furlong left to run. One thing I did get right was the fact that 5/2 BOG might offer a small amount of value come race time and so that proved as he was sent off a a 2/1 jt fav.
It’s a very wet and windy Wednesday here in God’s own county (Lancashire), but hopefully conditions will be better for us in the…
I’m a little under the weather myself today and today’s selection is also towards the shorter end of the market, so I’ll keep it brief so we can all get on the advised odds.
I’ve backed Mark Johnston’s Got To Dream at 5/2 BOG with Skybet on this horse’s debut for the yard after six starts in maidens in Ireland for Kevin Prendergast, making the frame in three of those races, including a runner-up finish last time out at Dundalk over today’s trip.
This three year old filly also completed 10.5f at Tipperary in June, so today’s mile and a a half is well within her capabilities and she has shown some aptitude for all ground conditions and has been placed on soft ground.
Unexposed newcomers to Mark Johnston’s yard tend to go well first time out. Since the start of 2009, mark has given a yard debut to 74 horses who had already had 1 to 6 previous runs ie they have raced, but aren’t over-raced. 24 of the 74 (32.4% SR) won at the first time of asking, generating 66.4pts profit at an ROI of 89.7%. From this basic stat, we can derive the following information…
Three year olds: 22/63 (34.9% SR) for 62.1pts (+98.6% ROI) profit.
Runners priced at 8/1 or shorter: 24/57 (42.1% SR) for 83.4pts (+146.3% ROI) profit.
3 yr olds at odds of 8/1 or shorter: 22/51 (43.1% SR) for 74.1pts (+145.4% ROI) profit.
Got To Dream is a 3yr old running in an open age handicap and as such receives an 11lb weight for age allowance in a race of 10f. This is no secret, but certain trainers are more adept at exploiting this angle than others and Mark Johnston is one of the best.
Since the start of the 2011 season, Mark has run 175 three year olds in open age handicaps of 1m4f to 2m in distance, where the allowances are the greatest. 43 of the 175 (24.6% SR) have been winners and the 42.9pts profit from those runners represents a 24.5% return above stakes invested, whilst those sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 39 of 128 (29.8% SR) efforts for 33pts (+25.8% ROI) profit.
So, from the above sets of data, we can see that Mark carefully chooses where to place his new horses for a decent debut run and that he’s a master of using the weight for age allowance to his/our advantage. The horse should be fine with trip and conditions and showed some promise in Ireland prior to relocation.
The only blot on the horizon for me today, is the withdrawal of one of the main rivals, Chant. This obviously helps our chances, but had reduced the price available to us here and the current best price of our 1pt win bet on Got To Dream is the 5/2 BOG on offer at SkyBet, whilst 9/4 BOG seems to be norm elsewhere.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS