Stat of the Day, 14th August 2014
Well, a couple of non-runners may well have made Got To Dream’s task a little easier on Wednesday but she was impressive all the same.
The stall gates opened and you’d have been forgiven for thinking you were watching a 5f sprint by the way she burst out and quickly opened up a healthy lead. She extended that lead readily throughout the race and at no point did she ever look like getting caught and still like she had more to give once she’d finished.
This one might well step up to 1m6f very soon and she’ll be one to watch, if shes not too heavily penalised, of course. There was a 15p Rule 4 deduction applied to my bet, reducing my 5/2 BOG down to 17/8, but even that looked like good value about a runaway 7/4 winner.
More of the same will go down nicely in Thursday’s…
And a 1pt win bet on the 3 yr old filly Last Echo at 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power.
Last Echo is trained by Ralph Beckett, who has been profitable to back under certain conditions for a good few years now. In fact, had yo backed every single one of his 984 handicap runners sent off at 12/1 or shorter since 2008, you’d have had 176 (17.9% SR) winning bets and made yourself 137.5pt to 1pt level stakes as a result. That’s a healthy ROI of 14% to date. We, obviously prefer a higher return for SotD, but 14% is very good on nearly 1,000 runners.
He has a good record here at Chepstow too, but off a much smaller sample size, as you’d expect, but the basic stat here is that he has had 18 winners from his 64 runners here in the last six seasons. This 28.1% strike rate is excellent and has rewarded his followers with 65.8pts profit, or 102.8% of stakes invested. This set of 64 runners can be broken down as follows…
Handicap races only : 8/28 = 28.6% SR for 26.3pts @ 93.8% ROI.
Priced Evens to 10/1 : 16/49 = 32.7% SR for 44.4pts @ 90.7% ROI.
Three year olds : 11/34 = 32.4% SR for 27.3pts @ 80.2% ROI
and obviously you can perm those three filters in a variety of profitable ways!
Last Echo, like Got To Dream, is a 3yr old filly competing in an open age handicap and therefore gets a healthy weight allowance and whilst Ralph beckett isn’t quite in Mark Johnston’s league at exploiting this allowance, he’s certainly no mug either and isn’t that far behind the maestro.
His “weight for age” runners seem to do best at the 1m4f to 1m7f trip and since 2008 he has had 17 winners from just 59 such runners for a strike rate of 28.8% and level stakes profits of 34.6pts at an ROI of 58.7%.
These figures can be refined by only considering those priced between 6/4 and 10/1, where the record reads 16 winners from 46 (34.8% SR) for 46.3pts (+100.7% ROI).
Last Echo is, as you’d expect, one of the less exposed runners in this race and today will be only her second start on turf after five A/W contests. She was a creditable fourth last time out, despite the good to firm ground being too quick for her and she didn’t seem to get the 1m6f that she’d been stepped up to.
The ground s much softer here and the drop back to a mile and a half should suit her better. We have to take her adapting to the going on trust, but she is by Whipper, whose offspring have a decent record with cut in the ground up to this trip. In fact Whipper’s offspring on ground with the word Soft or Heavy in the official going description have won 51 of 276 races at 1m4f or shorter. This 18.5% strike rate has, so far, generated 98.6pts (+35.7% ROI) profit and do at least suggest she’ll handle the conditions.
From that 51/276 record, three year olds are 23/98 (23.5% SR) for 75.5pts (+77% ROI) profit.
She’s also been eased 3lbs in the weights for this encounter and the booking of a senior pro rider in the shape of Silvestre de Sousa has to be seen as a bonus. I’m fairly sure that previous jockey Jane Elliott was giving it her all, but I fell SdS might just get a little bit more out of this one for us.
Plenty to consider and although Last Echo is far from a foregone conclusion, there’s enough to back up a 1pt win bet at 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power. A couple of other firms are already open for this race and seem to be at around the 5/1 to 11/2 mark, as you’ll see for yourself if you…
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