Stat of the Day, 16th August 2014
They do say that “you can’t win ’em all” and Mad Endeavour never really looked like winning at Nottingham yesterday. It was a disappointing run on the back of Thursday’s excellent performance, but that sums up the sport of racing, I suppose.
As it was, our runner finished 6th of 8 runners at the same 9/2 odds we’d earlier advised, but beaten by the best part of 10 lengths in a race I’d rather forget quickly and move on to Saturday’s event, the…
And a 7/2 BOG bet on Jim Goldie’s hurdler Los Nadis. Jim has a good record here at Perth in handicap hurdles races with a record of 19 wins from 120 runners for a 15.8% strike rate, which in turn has generated 53.pts profit at an ROI of 43.6% to date. Jim has seven runners set to compete today, but six of them are going to Doncaster, leaving Los Nadis as his sole representative here.
Not that Los Nadis will mind at all, he loves coming to Perth, having already won here four times, twice over today’s course and distance, so he shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina today. Mind you, he’s by Hernando whose progeny are 31/208 over this 3m/3m1f trip.
That’s a pretty decent 14.9% strike rate, yielding level stakes profits of 50.3pts (+24.2% ROI) and if you only backed those sent off in the 2/1 to 8/1 odds range, the record improves to 18 winners from 80 (22.5% SR) for 45.7pts (+57.2% ROI) profit. From which 2/6 for 5pts here at Perth.
Los Nadis was last seen winning over course and distance here just 18 days ago and this gives rise to another couple of stats to support our selection.
Firstly, over the last 6 seasons, former Perth course and distance winners who also won last time out, have a record of 14 /51 (27.5% SR) for 26.7pts profit (+52.3% ROI) when racing in that 2/1 to 8/1 price range mentioned earlier.
Secondly, I talked a while ago about horses winning after a string of unplaced efforts and then being sent out again fairly quickly to capitalise on that return to form.
Los Nadis is one of those horses with a recent form line of 5P7641. Basically I’m looking for horses fulfilling the following criteria: UK NH handicaps and a horse that won its last race within the last 30 days and was unplaced in at least three consecutive outings prior to that win.
Horses fitting that description and priced between 6/4 and 10/1 have won 156 of 691 races over the last three years with that 22.6% strike rate generating 149.6pts profit at an ROI of 21.6%.
Los Nadis will quite possibly attempt to make all and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t allowed to steal an early easy lead. He handles the testing conditions well and if allowed to dictate, could prove rather difficult to peg back in what might become a real test of stamina for some of his rivals.
We’ve got an underpriced (in my opinion, anyway!) favourite in this race, which means we get a little more juice in the price than we might have expected, which is always gratefully accepted.
So, I’m backing Los Nadis here and I’m taking 7/2 BOG with Bet365. That same price is on offer in at least a couple of other places, so you should be able to get the same odds as I’ve taken for this one, but if you want to check the market for yourself, simply…
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