Double Dutch, 19th August 2014
Monday was another losing day for us that bore some similarities to how last Saturday panned out in so much as both longer priced selections performed better than the original favourites and that once again we paired a winner with a runner-up.
This time, it was three quarters of a length between a 17/1 double for us (and Richard Hughes!) and a 2pt loss on the day. Unfortunately, Pull The Pin’s gallant effort to make all up against the rail came up a little short as he was outpaced in the last half furlong by a 6/1 winner. Gulland Rock was next in 3rd place, but well beaten the best part of 4 lengths further back.
This meant that Newton’s Law’s win later at Windsor counted for nothing but my pride. He was well fancied, eventually sent off as a 15/8 favourite in from our 7/2 advised odds and won by half a length, but seeming like he still had more in reserve, whilst the others were flat out.
Our other runner and original 9/4 favourite Jacob’s Pillow was sent off at 2/1 and despite finishing fourth, just 2.5 lengths off the pace, never really looked like making a serious challenge in a race where the first five home were only three lengths apart.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Pull The Pin: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Gulland Rock: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Newton’s Law: won at 15/8 (adv 7/2)
Jacob’s Pillow: u/p at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
326 winning selections from 1134 = 28.75%
108 winning bets in 296 days = 36.49%
P/L : +76.94pts (+12.95% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A couple of defeats in a row now, so we could do with a couple of winners from these today…
Ziggy’s Secret went really close on her first attempt at today’s 7f trip last time out, just failing by a neck at Lingfield 17 days ago. She stayed on well that day and looks like she’s still got a bit more to come at this trip.
She’s 3lbs higher for that run, but has a very capable 7lb claimer in the saddle today, which should make her very competitive for trainer Lucy Wadham who has a 43% strike rate here over the last two years and will seek to add another 11/4 BOG winner to her record.
She would have been priced around the 4/1 mark, but for the withdrawal of overnight favourite Elizona, who came out whilst I was writing this! This has made her task a little easier here, of course and also opens the door a little for Red Paladin to continue his recent revitalisation where he has finished 312 in his last three outings.
The best of those runs was his runner-up position at Leicester last time out when stepping up to today’s Class 4 level. He was a couple of lengths behind Bold Lass who was 2nd last night at Windsor, beaten by just a length despite a 7lb rise in weight and encountering soft ground for the first time.
Pearl Nation was a further 2.5 lengths back that day at Leicester, but he was a winner next time out, so if the form continues to work out, a 1lb rise for Red Paladin might not be enough to stop him making a bold bid at 100/30 BOG.
Yaakooum is a 145,000 guineas half-brother to Breton Rock who won the Hungerford on Saturday and this one relished the step up to a mile and a half to win at Ffos Las last time out on his handicap debut. He now runs under a 6lb penalty for that win, but takes a drop in class which should make him too good for his rivals here and he looks the most likely at 2/1 BOG.
Law Keeper is an interesting proposition here too. This lightly raced (2 starts so far) 3yr old filly showed plenty of promise in a 4.5 length runner-up finish on debut at Carlisle eight weeks ago, before returning to the same track a month later to win by that same margin.
She could have won by any distance that day and an opening mark of 75 looks very lenient indeed, as there’s probably quite a bit of improvement still to come from her. I’m also interested in the switch of jockey here, with Kieren Fallon riding a James Tate handicapper for only the 20th time to date.
He has won on 5 of those previous 19 occasions and is 3/8 on them this year and will look to extend that with a win at 5/2 BOG here today.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Ziggy’s Secret / Yaakooum @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Ziggy’s Secret / Law Keeper @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Red Paladin / Yaakooum @ 12/1 (100/30 & 2/1 : BetVictor & BetFred)
Red Paladin / Law Keeper @ 14.17/1 (100/30 & 5/2 : Coral)