Stat of the Day, 19th August 2014
Cincuenta Pasos was beaten by a little over two lengths yesterday, because he had nothing to give when it was asked for with 600 yards to travel. He looked to have every chance up to that point, but when the leader pushed the button and set off for home, our runner didn’t have the same turn of foot to go with her.
The end result was a third place finish as a 6/4 favourite that we’d backed at 7/2 BOG early doors. So, we smashed the SP again and there was no disgrace in the defeat, but there was no profit either, something that will hopefully be corrected in this evening’s…
Where I’ve taken 3/1 BOG about David Pipe’s chaser Franklin Roosevelt. The Pipe string is in good nick at the moment (3 wins and a runner-up from his last five runners) and has a 33.3% strike rate over the last month (6/18) and in the last three seasons, his runners here at Worcester who have been priced at 6/1 or shorter have won 12 of 36 races for 15.5pts (+43% ROI) profit.
Franklin Roosevelt is David’s only runner of the day and he was an easy six lengths winner at Newton Abbot just over five weeks ago in a Class 4 hurdle and runs at that same level here today…
David Pipe’s male handicap chasers who ran at the same class or within one class either way as their last run, which also happened to be a win inside the last 45 days, have won 17 of 63 (27% SR) races since 2008 and this has generated 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 42.4%.
Those sent off in our general price range for SotD (2/1 to 7/1) have won 13 of 33 (39.4% SR) for 47.8pts, or 144.8% above stakes invested.
Our jockey today will be Kieron Edgar who will take a useful 5lbs off this joint top-weight here…
Mr Pipe doesn’t call upon the services of a jockey with a 5lb claim that often, but when he does, he often reaps the rewards of that decision. Since 2008, the yard’s record in NH handicaps with a 5lb claimer in the saddle, has been 22 winners from 119 (18.5% SR) for 129.6pts (+108.9% ROI) profit.
The “Instant Expert” tab on our racecards also tells us that our selection today has won three times from five attempts on good ground, with a further place finish for good measure. He has won four of eleven starts at this level (Class 4) and he’s 2/6 in small fields of 7 or fewer runners, so conditions look ideal for him here.
2m 7f isn’t a trip he has tackled before, but he did win over 2m 7.5f at Leicester last year, so although he’s dropping back in trip today, it’s not exactly a step into the unknown.
The market is often a good indicator of his chances, with him being sent off in the 15/8 to 7/1 price range in 12 of his 20 starts to date and all six career wins fall into that price bracket, where he is 6/12 (50% SR) for 22pts (+183.3% ROI) profit.
He ran well last time out when having a pipe-opener over hurdles for his first run for almost six months at Newton Abbot five weeks ago, where he was an easy winner and now he reverts back to chasing off what still looks a very workable mark, aided by the afore-mentioned 5lb claim.
All things considered, 3/1 BOG looks a pretty reasonable price for our 1pt win bet on Franklin Roosevelt here and I’m on with Hills. The price is quite widely available, so for your pick of the bookies, simply…
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