Stat of the Day, 20th August 2014
A poor / awful / disappointing * (delete/apply as applicable!) run from Franklin Roosevelt last night. Sent off at 11/4, just slightly shorter than my advisory price of 3/1, he failed to impress.
In fact, I’m going to quote the Sporting Life’s summary of the race and then quickly move on…“Raced lazily, not fluent 1st, soon led, jumped right 7th, ducked right approaching next, headed 4 out, mistake 3 out, weakened next…”
He finished 3rd of 5 runners (only 4 finished) and was beaten by 20 lengths for a bad day at the office hopefully quickly rectified in today’s…
And a Class 5 A/W handicap over 1m2f, where James Fanshawe runs the 3yr old gelding Captain George.
If you had backed every single one of James Fanshawe’s runners since the start of 2011, you’d have had a winner pretty much once every 6 races on average, which is pretty good going over such a long time frame.
The actual numbers are 132 winners from 817 runners for a strike rate of 16.2%, level stakes profits of 211.2pts and an ROI of 25.9% : very impressive stuff indeed. In handicap races, the figures aren’t quite as good profit-wise, but are still very creditable in more competitive races at 80/426 (18.8% SR) for 95.3pts (+22.4% ROI).
His younger handicappers (ie 3&4 yr olds) have been particularly successful winning 74 of 353 races (21% SR) for profits of 114.9pts (+32.6% ROI)
Today is Captain George‘s handicap debut…
James Fanshawe’s horse who have made their handicap on an A/W surface since the start of 2009 have won 13 of 42 (31%) attempts with the 41pts profits achieved representing some 97.6% of stakes invested and those sent off in our general 5/2 to 6/1 price range have won 10 of 20 (50% SR) for 33.7pts (+168.4% ROI)
The horse has run four times previously, but never on the A/W…
James Fanshawe is very good at getting horses to perform well on the ir first run on an A/W surface once they’ve acquired some racing experience on turf and since 2010 his record with such runners is 17 wins from 60 (28.3% SR) for 51.7pts profit (+86.2% ROI), with those sent off at 7/1 or shorter having a record of 13 wins from 27 (48.2% SR) for 59pts (+218.6% ROI).
And of Captain George himself? He probably hasn’t progressed quite as quickly as his handlers would have hoped/expected, but he is improving at his own pace. He was a beaten odds on favourite at Nottingham three weeks ago, but that runner-up (beaten by 1.5 lengths) was easily his best run to date. He has been given what looks a lenient mark of 72 for his handicap debut and with Cameron Hardie taking another 5lbs off here, he’s likely to be very competitive off that weight.
He was doing all his best work late on at Nottingham, staying on well to make up ground he had lost when outpaced in the midsection of the race and it is assumed that the extra 2f here today will be more to his liking.
I’m pretty confident of him producing his best run to date now sent handicapping on the A/W, yet it seems I’ve misread the market a little this morning. I was expecting to see him priced up around the 4/1 mark, but 13/2 BOG is currently on offer in several places and a little bit more at BetVictor.
With that in mind, I’m actually going to hedge my bets and take a 0.5pts E/W bet on Captain George today at 7/1 BOG with BetVictor in the knowledge that a win will pay us more than my expected 4pts profit anyway with the added insurance of the place bet.
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