Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014
Captain George failed to make the frame at Lingfield, finishing 5th of the 10 runners, yet only a length away from the runner-up. You have to take the rough with the smooth in this game, but I can’t help but wonder what might have happened had the jockey not just kept him a bit closer tot he action.
As they rounded the final bend, our mount was well adrift and when asked eventually for an effort picked up the pace really well and finished strongly.
These things happen, I suppose and so we move on to Thursday’s runner, who goes in the…
Where 4/1 BOG chance Lysino is course specialist Dr Richard Newland’s only runner of the day.
The good doctor is a man you can follow blindly and still make a modest profit in excess of what the banks would give you and that has to be a good starting point. In fact, his overall record is 176 winners from 1030 runners for a strike rate of 17.1%. The level stakes profits from those runners amount to 66.4pts and whilst the ROI of 7.1% isn’t massive, it’s actually incredibly good from such a large sample size with no filters.
But SotD wouldn’t be SotD without my filters, would it? So here goes…
From the full set of 1030 runners, the record with horses priced in the 6/4 to 15/2 bracket is 109/475 (22.95% SR) for 78.9pts at an ROI of 18% and now we’re talking. Of those 475 horses, the figures for Ffos Las are 8/15 (53.3% SR) for 29.1pts (+193.8% ROI), of which there were 5 winners from 9 hurdlers (55.6% SR) for 19.6pts (+217.6% ROI) profit.
Lysino has been in excellent form, since a switch earlier in the year to Keith Dalgleish revitalised him. Keith ran him twice on the flat and he was a comfortable winner on both occasions and the ground speed and sharpness gained from that little spell on the Flat has served him well since moving to the Newland yard where he won first time out and was then the runner-up at Fontwell six days ago where he went down by just three parts of a length.
That run at Fontwell was this 5yr old’s fourth run in the last three months (1112) and he’s turned out quickly again here. I’m not too alarmed about him running for the thord tome in 23 days or for the second time in 6 days as history suggests he’ll fare quite well yet again.
In handicap hurdles since 2008, horses aged 5 to 9 with two to five runs in the last three months, running within a week of a top four finish last time out have gone on to win 392 times from the 1480 races where they have been sent off at odds below 12/1.
That’s another large sample size with a decent strike rate (26.5% this time!). However, the profits and subsequent ROI are also very good on this occasion with the 298.6pts representing a good return of 20.3% above stakes.
And from the 1480 runners, Dr Newland’s record is 9/19 (47.4%) for 4.8pts (+24.9% ROI), whilst Ffos Las has only played host to 24 of the 1480 horses in question. 8 of the 24 (33.33% SR) were winners, though and the 7.2pts profit raised is a more than satisfactory 30% ROI. Incidentally only one horse (Bombadero in October 2013) ran here at Ffos Las and was trained by Dr Newland. It was, of course a winner! 😀
It was also ridden by today’s jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who has a decent record when riding the doctor’s horses with 29 winners from 118 rides (24.6% SR), the partnership is particularly successful where there’s a bit (but not too much!) money around for them, as they are most profitable in the 5/2 to 10/1 region where their 14 winners from 60 rides (23.3% SR) has generated level stakes profits of 34.2pts for an ROI of some 57%.
I’m happy with the main quick returner stat allied tot he trainer’s record here at the track and the trainer/jockey partnership figures are an added bonus. Lysino was generally a 5/1 shot when I started typing, but 4/1 BOG is now the best on offer and he’s already as low as 100/30 in places. We’ll take the 4/1 BOG on offer from Coral as our official price, but the same odds are available from Betfair’s Sportbook.
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