Double Dutch, 21st August 2014
Panther Patrol defied the latest hike in weights to win his fourth race on the bounce yesterday. He stayed on well to grab the victory in the shadow of the post, just getting home by a nose.
This meant a long and ultimately fruitless wait until the last race of the evening, where I thought were well set with our two selections, but Souville was headed at the furlong pole and although he stayed on well, was unable to get any closer than three parts of a length behind the winner.
A close, but frustrating defeat after a tight victory early on, fine margins as ever!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Panther Patrol: won at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Marmalady: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Souville: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Taquka: u/p at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
329 winning selections from 1142 = 28.81%
109 winning bets in 298 days = 36.58%
P/L : +78.19pts (+13.08% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are our featured races for Thursday…
The withdrawal of last year’s winner has simplified the task facing likeable mare Jaja De Jau here today and I expect her to now go on to continue her fine form over hurdles of late. She has won twice and been runner-up twice in her last four efforts (1212) and was only beaten by just over a length last time out, despite conceding weight to the winner, Sureness, who has since won again under a penalty at Southwell four days ago, beating a McCoy odds-on jolly by three lengths.
Jaja de Jau ran well at Uttoxeter last time out and if the form shown by Sureness on Sunday holds out, we could well have a winner on our hands at 3/1 BOG.
Watt Broderick’s absence, however, actually makes picking a second horse more difficult, as there’s a distinct lack of quality on show here, but City Line is possibly the best option with all the runners having question marks about them.
City Line doesn’t win very often, but has been performing consistently well of late with finishes of 32B212, with that win coming on his last effort over hurdles when he kept on well to win by a length and a half at Perth over a similar trip to today.
He was only just touched off over fences a day later at the same venue, so is clearly in decent nick and having had the benefit of a short 3-week break, he should be ready to go again. The concern her, of course, is the the fact that he’s fairly high in the weights, but his jockey’s 7lb claim will certainly help and he’s looks the tentative next best here at 9/2 BOG.
First Sargeant was a winner on his last run for Marco Botti back in July, before an unsuccessful short 5-race stint under Geoff Harker, where a record of 90903 isn’t pretty at all. His best effort there was clearly the third place finish at Nottingham last time out. But he now reappears on a fairly low mark, with a jockey taking 5lbs off and making his yard debut for Michael Appleby who has a very good record at reviving the fortunes of horses who have struggled elsewhere.
The market is often a good indicator of these Appleby debutants and First Sargeant is the favourite at present with a best price of 15/8 BOG on offer.
I think, however, that he might be forced to wait for a victory by Cataria Girl who bids for her fourth win in just seven outings and despite only finishing fourth of six last time out at Sandown last time out, that bare result doesn’t tell the whole story.
She didn’t get any breaks that day and was denied a clear passage on a couple of occasions, but was only beaten by a length and a half in the end, finishing really strongly and making up ground with every stride. She gave the impression that had the race been longer, she would have overhauled the leaders once she saw daylight and the extra distance should suit her here today.
She’s 1/1 here at Bath and that was also on similarly quick ground to today’s contest and provided her jockey has learned from what happened last time out, Cataria Girl looks a player at 11/4 BOG running off the same mark as last time out.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Jaja De Jau / First Sargeant @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Boylesports)
Jaja De Jau / Cataria Girl @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : Boylesports)
City Line / First Sargeant @ 14.81/1 (9/2 & 15/8 : Skybet)
City Line / Cataria Girl @ 19.63/1 (9/2 & 11/4 : Skybet)