Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2014
The good news from yesterday was that, once again, we smashed the SP on our chosen runner, taking 4/1 BOG about a 15/8 favourite and in the long run, that will prove to be profitable.
In the short-term, however, that wasn’t the case, as Lysino was beaten by two lengths into third place. He was held up towards the rear of the field for much of the contest, but steadily made ground in the final half mile or so until it got to the point a furlong from home where he had every chance of going on to win.
He had a couple of lengths to make up, but had no extra injection of pace when needed and couldn’t close the gap.
It has been a frustrating week so far, but these are the fine margins that we deal with on a daily basis and I’m hoping for a little more in today’s…
And an 11/4 BOG bet on Ed Dunlop’s 2 yr old filly Arethusa who makes only her third start after racing twice last month, securing a runner-up finish on her debut and a comfortable win a big field at Newmarket last time out. That was five weeks ago and she had What A Party 3.25 lengths behind her in third place that day, with that horse going on to win both of his two subsequent races (one maiden and one handicap/nursery).
After her maiden win, this is Arethusa’s handicap bow in a Class 4 Nursery…
Ed Dunlop has a good record with handicap debutants and since the start of the 2008 flat season he has saddled up 23 winners from his 151 debutants for a strike rate of 15.2% and resultant level stakes profits of 49.3pts, which equates to 32.6% of stakes.
He hasn’t fared too well in better quality handicaps, but at Class 3 and lower, the record is very impressive with 22 wins from 131 (16.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+44.5% ROI) profit.
She’s stepping up a class today, too…
Ed also has a good record with his handicappers stepping up in class, especially if there’s some money about for them. As in the same 2008-14 timeframe, his handicappers running up a class and at odds of 7/1 or shorter have won 22 of 94 races at a rate of 23.4% and the 21.8pts profit generated is worth 23.1% of stakes.
Incidentally, from an admittedly small sample size: 19 horses have satisfied both criteria to date with 10 (52.6%) of them making the frame. Four of the nineteen (21.1% SR) were winners, generating 11.2pts profit at an ROI of almost 59%.
Arethusa seems to have been treated on the lenient side with an opening mark of 76, which looks very workable in a field of runners where she’s the only one to have previously won at the trip. I’d expect her to shorten as the day goes on, so I’m happy to take the 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor.
Not all the firms had priced this up at close to 1am, so for their prices, I suggest that you…
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