Double Dutch, 23rd August 2014
I’m afraid to report that my recent mini-slump in form continued yesterday, with Wordismybond’s two length defeat being the “highlight” of another disappointing day.
Not that I’m too concerned just now. We’re all aware of the cyclical nature of racing and like the horses themselves, those of us who write about the sport are subject to rises and falls in form.
That said, yesterday was the 300th day of the Double Dutch and to date we have landed the winner in 330 of 600 races and netted ourselves 109 winning doubles along the way.
Our profits stand at 76.19pts, a return above stakes of a healthy 12.7% and despite a frustrating few days, I’m sure it won’t be long before we’re raising our glasses again to celebrate another winning double.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Rekdhat: u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/4)
Psychometry: u/p at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Wordismybond: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Half Way: u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
330 winning selections from 1150 = 28.70%
109 winning bets in 300 days = 36.33%
P/L : +76.19pts (+12.70% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last chance of the week, so I’m hoping to go out with a bang with these races…
Warrior of Light is up 8lbs for a win at Ffos Las last time out, but is still unexposed after just six starts and might well still be ahead of the handicapper. Two wins and a runner-up twice in his last five outings show the form he’s in, no more so than when staying on to beat Quest for More last time around with that form now being franked by the latter only just getting edged out at York on Wednesday. Despite the rise in weights, Warrior of Light is the one to beat here at 5/2 BOG.
The one most likely to chase him home should be the 4yr old filly Debdebdeb. She’s a gutsy battler who won’t go down without a fight if she’s in a handy position in the closing stages. She was very good last season, winning three and placing in 4 other starts of her eight runs and was only beaten by a head on her seasonal reappearance at Goodwood back in April.
She, admittedly, hasn’t scaled the heights of last season just yet, but has shown promising signs of a return to form lately by finishing just 3.5 lengths adrift in a Listed contest at York six weeks ago and she was eyecatching in defeat in the Shergar Cup at Ascot a fortnight ago, despite finishing 4th and beaten by four lengths.
Debdebdeb was left with far too much to do late on by her temporary imported jockey, but did stay on really well. Thomas Brown is in the saddle today and he has already ridden her to victory in the past and his 3lb claim won’t do her chances at 7/2 BOG any harm either.
I don’t always agree with the bookies, but I have to side with their view that the two at the head of the market should be winning this one today. So we have a 2/1 BOG favourite in the form of Captain Cat who hasn’t been overworked on hos way to this race, having run just five times in the last year. His form from those five reads 12211 and he took both a four month break and the step up to Group racing in his stride when winning comfortably at Salisbury nine days ago.
He was easing down towards the finish with the job already done, but still posted an official winning margin of 2.5 lengths. This, of course, is a trickier contest for Captain Cat, but he had plenty in hand that day and should also come on for having had a recent run. Roger Charlton’s horses are in good form and the trainer has an excellent record at this track.
Next in line is the least exposed of the pack, the 3yr old Hors de Combat who trades around the 3/1 BOG mark at the moment. 3 yr olds have a good record in this race and of the three entered today, I think he shades the verdict. Just six starts under his belt to date, but he has already won twice and made the frame on a further three occasions, most recently over course and distance here when beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 race at the start of the month with today’s re-opposing Bow Creek a further 3.5 lengths behind.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Warrior of Light / Captain Cat @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Warrior of Light / Hors de Combat @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Boylesports & Ladbrokes)
Debdebdeb / Captain Cat @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook & Skybet)
Debdebdeb / Hors de Combat @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1, Boylesports, Paddy P, Ladbrokes & Betfred)