Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2014
After a few disappointing / frustrating days where I’ve been scratching around for a bit of form both here and on DD, I was very happy / relieved to see Jim Crowley give such a good ride to Arethusa yesterday evening at Goodwood.
He kept her handy, but not right at the head of affairs and bided his time well before taking the lead well inside the final furlong to score by half a length and become the latest to beat the runner-up Persun, who seems to have found a knack of finishing second, as she has now done in five of her six starts to date.
Advised at 11/4 BOG, but returned slightly longer at 3/1, Arethusa got our week back on track and another winner today would ensure profit for the week and I’m hoping to find it in the…
Same time as yesterday, but different track yet looking for a similar result from 7/2 BOG (Bet365) chance Certificate in this one mile, Class 4 open age handicap.
This one is trained by Roger Varian…
…who has a terrific record here at Windsor with 18 of 59 entrants here proving successful. The 30.5% strike rate has generated 35.5pts profit at level stakes for an ROI of 60.2%, whilst this year alone he has saddled up 9 winners from just 21 runners (42.9% SR) for 39.4pts (+187.8% ROI).
If we focus our attention just on handicap contests, Roger’s record here is 8 wins from 22 (36.4% SR) with the 21.2pts profits equating to 96.4% of stakes and in 2014 the figures are quite amazing at five winners from nine (55.6%) for 22.8pts and a staggering yield of 253.4%, albeit from a very small sample size.
Today will the first time Certificate has raced in handicap company…
Mr Varian is also a dab hand at placing his handicap debutants into winnable races as an overall record of 25 wins from 119 (21%SR) would suggest. These winners have produced 31.3pts profit to date at an ROI of 26.3%. Those figures obviously include all runners at all odds, but we can see how they have performed in various odds ranges, as follows…
Priced from 2/1 to 12/1 inclusive: 20/85 (23.5% SR) for 51.6pts (+60.7% ROI)
and at 2/1 to 6/1 : 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 33.9pts (+52.9% ROI) .
Those figures are very impressive, but closer inspection suggests that the Varian handicap debutants perform best in what I’d term mid-quality races ie Classes 3 to 5 inclusive, where 19 of 66 (28.8% SR) handicap debutants have won, generating profits of 51.8pts to date at a return of 78.4% above stakes. If we apply similar odds filters to above, we get…
Priced from 2/1 to 12/1 inclusive: 18/58 (31% SR) for 57.2pts (+98.6% ROI)
and at 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+82.2% ROI).
All of which points to a bold show here from our selection.
Certificate was a course and distance winner last time out…
Which leads me to a fairly long-winded set of criteria for my final set of data, criteria that are easier said then written, so please bear with me!
Since 2009, horses running at Windsor with CD next to their name priced between 2/1 & 15/2 in a class 3 to 5 handicap and who were winners (anywhere, any trip!) last time out have performed really well. In other words, in-form course and distance runners!
Anyway, horses fulfilling those criteria have actually gone on to 20 of 78 return visits to Windsor for a strike rate of 25.6% and level stakes profits of 36.7pts (+47.1% ROI).
The form from his C&D win last time out seems to be working out nicely too, as the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th placed horses that day have all gone on to win setting a nice precedent for us here today.
Also in our favour is the presence of the in-form (3/7 in the last three days) Freddie Tylicki in the saddle, one of the better jockeys riding in this particular race and who was on board Certificate when winning here last time out.
An opening mark of 83 looks quite fair and is possibly underestimating our runner today, especially when you add in the 6lb weight for age allowance which should not only make his task a little easier, but should also offer us some value in our 7/2 BOG bet.
And that’s the call today: a 1pt win bet on Certificate at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who are currently the most generous, but not all books were open at 2.00am, so once again, it might prove prudent to…
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