Double Dutch, 25th August 2014
Saturday went the way that most of last week went (ie disappointingly poor) and a slight tinkering in strategy might just be required from today with a more back to basics approach. It might seem as I’ve been chasing the payout a little, but that it isn’t the case, I assure you.
I think that I’ve not chosen the actual races well enough and gone with contests that have proved to be too competitive, since the horses I’ve selected have, in the main, been pretty popular with the general public.
And so it was on Saturday, where we ended up with both race favourites and 2nd favourites, but as seen below, only found the one placer!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Debdebdeb: u/p at 11/2 (adv 7/2)
Warrior of Light: u/p at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Captain Cat: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Hors de Combat: u/p at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
330 winning selections from 1154 = 28.60%
109 winning bets in 301 days = 36.21%
P/L : +74.19pts (+12.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hopefully the new week will bring about a change of luck…
We have an interesting couple of hurdling debutants coming over from the flat to take on a field of largely unappealing hurdlers and it’s the new recruits that I fancy to take this.
Authorship was very lightly raced (1752 in four starts) on the Flat in Godolphin blue and is an interesting starter for an in-form (5 from 8 this month) John Ferguson and more tellingly the booking of AP McCoy to take the ride is a clear suggestion that connections expect something to happen first time up. As is usually the case AP is in good nick with a recent strike rate better than 1-in-3 and both jockey and trainer have good records at this track. 9/4 BOG looks quite inviting here.
Brockwell is the current 13/8 BOG market leader, though. He’s quite a bit more experienced than Authorship and has proven credentials at staying today’s 16.5 furlongs (and beyond!) And although he hasn’t been winning of late, he has been competing in some decent quality Class 2 staying handicaps on the flat and would welcome any rain at all for his hurdling debut. The tougher this race becomes, the more he is to win and despite it being a hurdling debut, you know Team Moore will have schooled him really well.
Hanno is unfortunately developing a bridesmaid tag very quickly, having finished 2322 in his last four outings, but steps down in class here today for what looks (on paper, at least!) a pretty poor race. A repeat of any of his last four runs should probably be enough to finally break his duck. He clearly brings the best form to the race and might well be slightly overpriced at 5/2 BOG here.
There is, however, the fact that both winning and losing can become habit forming and that he might (yet again!) find one he can’t deal with and if that’s the case here, then it’s highly likely to be Tasmanian who is the fly in the ointment. At 9/4 BOG, the market seems to think he has a good chance of building on a decent run on debut when fourth of eight at Pontefract eight days ago.
He was a little awkward and slow at the start and was soon outpaced, losing too much ground early on, but he did warm to the task and produced some decent work in the latter stages of the contest, staying on well in what was already a lost cause. He’s related to a Group 2 winner over 7f and the benefit of that run last week should help him overcome the greenness he displayed that day.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Brockwell / Tasmanian @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : Betfred)
Brockwell / Hanno @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : Boylesports)
Authorship / Tasmanian @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : widely available)
Authorship / Hanno @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Coral)