Stat of the Day, 25th August 2014
We backed Certificate at 7/2 on Saturday and a 25p Rule 4 deduction reduced our bet down to 21/8 BOG, which again proved substantially better than the 15/8 starting price.
And had we had a bit more luck in running, we might well have been celebrating at the finish. Unfortunately, our horse got boxed in at the 2 pole and didn’t see daylight until there was only half a furlong to run. The eventual winner and main threat Jailawi had not only the run of the race, but had also set off for home by this point.
Freddie Tylicki urged as much as he could out of his ride and stayed on well, but was ultimately denied by a length and a quarter. Its easy to look back and see the race going against us, but there’s little we can do in reality, other than dust ourselves down and go again in today’s…
Now, a very competitive Class 2 handicap wouldn’t necessarily be everyone’s first port of call when they were scraping about for a result, but I assure there is more than pure sentiment behind me selecting the 10yr old veteran of 89 previous flat races, Osteopathic Remedy today, trust me!
Firstly, he’s a 4-times course and distance winner and won last time out at Thirsk…
Former course and distance winners returning to Ripon on the back of a win last time out have won 12 of 41 races when sent off below 12/1 in the last four years.
This 29.3% strike rate has so far generated 27.1pts profit from level stakes at an ROI of 66.1%. 26 of the 41 (63.4%) have made the frame with E/W backers making 47.5pts (+57.9% ROI) profit, which is handy to know in case we want to go E/W later.
The horse is trained by Michael Dods and will be ridden by Connor Beasley claiming 3lbs…
We’re likely to see the horse run in the 4/1 to 9/1 price range today, unless there’s a flood of money for him, but Mr Dods’ horses have run well in the past under a 3lb claimer within those odds parameters, winning 11 of 51 Flat handicaps in the last four seasons.
That’s a strike rate of 21.6% and the level stakes profits of 27.5pts have produced a return above stakes invested of 53.9%.
Our runner’s recent win was the first time he’d made the frame in 10 starts…
But that’s not a negative to me. Very often in the past, when horses have won after a poor run of form, they have gone on to win again.
More specifically under the following criteria: Won LTO after at least three successive unplaced efforts / Running at same or within one class as LTO / Running at same trip or within 2f of LTO / Running over at least a mile.
Horses fulfilling those four key components of my microsystem have, since the start of the 2009 season, won 154 of 986 flat races at a strike rate of 15.6%. That’s a low looking rate for SotD purposes, but it’s actually excellent from such a huge sample size.
Those winners have generated a massive 252pts at an ROI to date of 25.6%
So, the general stats point to a good run for Osteopathic Remedy, but what about him specifically?
Well, he’s massively exposed, of course, with 89 runs to his name, but 13 wins (14.6% SR) and a total of 29 placed efforts (32.6%) have made him profitable to back over the years.
In fact had you backed him to a £10 stake at Betfair SP in each of those 89 runs so far, you’d now be sitting on a profit of over £1040 (+117.2% ROI).
He’s 12/54 at this trip, 7 from 42 at this level and 4 from 13 here at Ripon (4/12 over C&D). He’ll get the forecasted good ground, as he’s got five wins under such conditions so far, but he also won’t mind any rain that might well appear before race time, as he also has a good record with cut in the ground.
He won this race last year off a mark of 90 (the same as today) and Connor Beasley was in the saddle again that day and he really loves this race. If you further analyse his 4/12 record over course and distance, you’ll see that all four wins have actually come in this race, where his record over the years quite amazingly reads 131411.
He always gives it his all in this race, but time catches up with everyone eventually and he’s slightly up in weight today (6lb penalty halved by the jockey claim) and with just those slight nagging doubts, I’m going to hedge my bets and take the 0.5pts E/W option with Osteopathic Remedy at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor. For all the other prices, please…
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