Double Dutch, 26th August 2014
A better day for us yesterday, despite it being eventually fruitless. We did, however, manage to get ourselves back among the the winners and only missed the double in a defeat by a length and a half that was tinged with irony.
In our first race, Authorship took to hurdling as well as could be expected for the Ferguson/McCoy partnership. he made a couple of early mistakes but settled into a rhythm and his flat speed saw him home by a good seven lengths.
Then, it was off to Ripon, where Hanno once again was the bridesmaid of the piece, placing for the fifth consecutive race without winning and here’s the ironic/frustrating part: the winner wasn’t our other pick, but a typical Brian Ellison debutant.
My Stat of the Day head flagged Lilly Junior up, as the Ellison yard do so well with new recruits, but I’d backed Lilly Junior in the past and she’d been very disappointing and that’s why I (wrongly in hindsight!) overlooked her.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Authorship: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Brockwell: u/p at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Hanno: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Tasmanian: u/p at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
331 winning selections from 1158 = 28.58%
109 winning bets in 302 days = 36.09%
P/L : +72.19pts (+11.95% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I felt we made a step in the right direction yesterday, so hopefully more progress to come from these…
Tom Tate has a 27% strike rate at this venue and looks set to improve upon that with Mighty Missile here today. He’s still unexposed after just six runs and has finished second in two of his three starts this season. His best effort to date cam when he was just touched off by a head here at Ripon ten days ago. He’d been outpaced in the midsection of the race, but stayed on strongly to only just miss out.
He was stepping up to 1m4f for the first time that day, but really looked like he wanted/needed further and he’ll certainly get that today at this 2m trip. He also gets a whole stone weight for age allowance, which is often pivotal in these staying contests, making him the most likely to succeed at 15/8 BOG with Coral.
Annes Valentino, on the other hand, is already proven at this trip with finishes of 1532 and she comes here in a decent run of form, having won two and been placed three times in her last six outings. She looks quite lightly treated running off the same mark of 55 as her last outing and should probably be the bad of a fairly bad bunch chasing the winner home, now that a couple of the other main contenders have been withdrawn.
The non-runners have, of course, compacted the market, but her best price of 4/1 BOG (SkyBet) looks to offer some value here as a secondary selection.
The withdrawal of most likely winner Warrigal has opened this race up to a few runners who previously looked destined to contest the minor places here. Of those, Echo Brava would be the one I’d go with, having bypassed an engagement at Epsom yesterday to run here instead. He has better form on artificial surfaces than on the flat, but having said that has only narrowly been beaten in his last three outings, all on grass. He has finished 223 in those races, beaten by head, then a neck and most recently by three parts of a length by Barwick, who won by two lengths at Epsom yesterday.
The return to an all-weather surface should bring a bit more out of a horse already in good nick and if the form from his last race continues to pan out, he’ll have every chance at 7/2 BOG in a race that looks weaker than his last outing, despite him running off the same mark.
Dino Mite is the other I like for this one today, she never raced as a two year old and has only competed three times to date. Her best run was the middle one of the three, where she was a 18 lengths winner at Southwell over a mile and a half. She ran well at Nottingham next/last time out, but weakened late on and she looked like a return to A/W racing would suit her better.
And if we go back to that facile win at Southwell, the runner-up that day who was 18 lengths adrift went on to win next time out, as did the fourth place horse, who she actually beat by some 38 lengths, easing down in the last furlong once she’d won! This won’t be as easy, but a decent effort back on an A/W surface would put her in the mix and you can also back her at 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Mighty Missile / Echo Brava @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Coral)
Mighty Missile / Dino Mite @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Coral)
Annes Valentino / Echo Brava @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Annes Valentino / Dino Mite @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)