Stat of the Day, 26th August 2014
Osteopathic Remedy gave us yet another gutsy battling effort over the Ripon mile yesterday as he stayed on to finish third to take his record in that particular race to four wins and two places in the last seven years.
The ground was probably a little too quick for him and he was up in weight, meaning the market didn’t really fancy him and he drifted out from my advised 15/2 to an SP of 10/1.
Fortunately, we had taken the insurance option of an E/W bet and we managed to secure a small (0.5pts) profit on the day. Not brilliant, but better than a loss. And now for Tuesday, we turn our attentions to the…
Where Malcolm Jefferson’s Danby’s Legend is priced at 9/4 BOG to land back to back wins after proving successful five weeks ago at Southwell.
Malcolm is a trainer I’ve been following for some time. In fact, Matt (Mr Geegeez himself!) made me aware of him a few years back, when he suggested I keep an eye out for his NH handicappers. Well since 2010, Malcolm’s record in NH handicaps is very good with 72 winners from 469 runners.
That’s a healthy strike rate of 15.4%, but the level stakes profits of 277.2pts (ROI of 59.1%) are the more impressive element of the raw stat we’ll work from.
He has a better record with his chasers (which suits us here!) as the strike rate increases to 18.7% via 47 winners from 252 runners and there’s a rise in profits/ROI to go with that higher strike rate, as level stakes profit of 179.5pts are equivalent to a 71.2% return on your money.
From those 252 chasers, 34 have run here at Sedgefield, providing a dozen (35.3% SR) winners for profits of 59.5pts (+175% ROI), with the bulk (10) of thoase dozen winners being priced at 6/1 or shorter, as today’s runner is likely to be.
In fact, Mr Jefferson’s chasers have won 10 of just 19 efforts (52.6% SR) over fences here at Sedgefield when priced at 6/1 or shorter and this has generated 33.4pts profits at level stakes, which is a massive 175.7% return on stakes invested.
Danby’s Legend is Malcolm’s only chaser here today and therefore is the default selection.
And he comes here off the back of a win over two miles at Southwell five weeks ago…
He is stepping up in class to Class 4 today, the trip is a half furlong further than last time out and he’s seven pounds higher in the ratings, but he’s actually on fairly familiar ground, fitting a pattern we’ve seen with the Jefferson chasers over the last few years.
We expect an LTO winner to carry more weight and a step up in Class is hardly surprising, whilst the extra 110 yards can often be put down to racetrack vagaries/variances, but the precedents is set by the following…
Malcolm Jefferson’s chasers who won last time out within the last six weeks / running at the same class or within one class of that last run / up in weight by 5lbs or more / at the same trip or within 2 furlongs of LTO… (and breathe!)
These such horses have gone on to win again on 9 of 19 occasions since 2010 with the 47.4% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 40.2pts at an ROI of 211.7%. All 19 were sent off in single digit odds with one winner from two here at Sedgefield.
Danby’s Legend was more comfortable than the one length margin would suggest last time out at Southwell and the step up in weight/class shouldn’t prove too onerous today for a horse in good nick. That was his first win after being unlucky at the same track when he fell 2 out whilst clear. He’s still unexposed over fences and I think there’s plenty more to come from him.
One other thing in his favour is that he’s by Midnight Legend, who is most definitely a sire to follow over fences. Since 2009 his offspring have won 142 of 711 chases they’ve contested: a 20% strike rate generating 419.6pts (+59% ROI) profits from level stakes. The record in handicaps is 112/577 (19.4% SR) for 406.1pts (+70.4% ROI).
Those figures obviously include all runners at all odds and I have to admit there are a couple of big winners in there, but these progeny are profitable at all odds and I could go on and produce lots of odds breakdowns to prove this (don’t worry, I won’t!), but I’ll just quote one example: those sent off between evens and 8/1 have won 26% of the time (92/354) for profits of 147.9pts or 41.8% of stakes. That ROI is lower than the overall figure, but is still more than respectable.
Plenty of stats plus recent form to back up our selection today, plus Danby’s Legend isn’t just the only Jefferson chaser on show today, he’s the only Midnight Legend offspring running today too.
A little shorter than most SotD selections, but one I think we can benefit from with a 1pt win bet on Danby’s Legend at 9/4 BOG, a price readily available in several places. I’ve gone with Hills today, but you can take your pick of the bookies, when you…
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