Stat of the Day, 27th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2014

Danby’s Legend took a crashing fall at the first open ditch at Sedgefield and his/our race was over before it had began. This was a blow to both ourselves and the many punters who had backed the horse down to 5/4 from our 9/4 advised odds.

He wasn’t running for long enough for me to draw any conclusions, but I will take his opportunity of blowing the geegeez trumpet a little, if I may?

The eventual winner Toledo Gold was sent off at 14/1 in  a 7-runner race and set off like a house on fire and led from pillar to post, winning by five lengths after a mistake at the last. I didn’t fancy him to be honest, nor did the market, but the Pace Analysis on our interactive racecards had him at the maximum 16 rating, so well done to those of you using that angle.

None of which did us any good at SotD, so we’ll try again in Wednesday’s…

5.55 Kempton:

Where the in-form Freddie Tylicki rides the 8/1 BOG (Paddy P) It’s A Yes From Me, who is trained by James Fanshawe.

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1. Not only is Freddie Tylicki in good nick, he has a good record riding for Mr Fanshawe…

Freddie has ridden 7 winners from 19 rides in the last week alone, so he’ll come into this meeting in a confident mood and aiming to build on his record of 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) when riding a Fanshawe handicapper. Level stakes profits of 37pts are worth almost 53 pence in the pound from all bet and with a 50% place strike rate, E/W punters have also fared well, netting 55.4pts profits (+39.6% ROI).

2. James Fanshawe’s horses tend to run well here at Kempton…

Since the start of 2010, the yard’s record here is 56 winners from 237 runners, a 23.6% strike rate generating 11.49pts profits at an ROI of 48.5%. Those figures on their own are excellent, but are actually improved if we only consider those running in handicap contests. In Kempton handicaps over the same period, there were 38 winners from 137 (27.7% SR) for 117.6pts (+85.9% ROI) with the safety-first E?W approach also proving successful courtesy of a 53.3% place strike rate yielding 154.5pts (+56.4% ROI) profit.

3. Our selection drops down from Class 5 to Class 6 today…

This is a tactic used to good effect by James Fanshawe over the years and since 2008, 26 of his 156 “class droppers” have won. A 1-in-6 strike rate is pretty good, as are the returned profits of 61.2pts, or 39.2% of stakes invested.

On the All-Weather, the numbers improve to 14 winners from 59 (23.7% SR) for 31.2pts (+52.9% ROI) profit, with Kempton’s contribution to the tally standing at 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 30.4pts (+82.3% ROI).

4. Today’s pick is making his handicap debut…

Horses sent to the All-Weather tracks for a handicap debut have won 13 of 44 times for the Fanshawe yard since 2009. It is a fairly small sample size, but the 29.6% strike rate is fairly constant over the years and the level stakes profits of 39pts are worth 88.6% of all stakes invested: more than handy to have. Once again Kempton is a happy hunting ground for the the team with a record of 8 winners from 28 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+98.6% ROI).

5. After three efforts on turf, this is the horse’s first run on an A/W track…

This is another successful tactic employed but James Fanshawe, switching a horse from turf to the A/W for the first time, whilst in what it normally perceived as “the turf season”. In other words, horses that have run on turf switching over in the months of March to October for a first crack at the A/W. Since 2010, James has done this with 62 runners, landing 18 winners (29% SR) and 53.2pts (+85.8% ROI) profit, with a record of 13/41 (31.7% SR) for 40.2pts (+98% ROI) with those switched here to Kempton.

So, we’ve an in-form jockey riding for a yard he does well for, who also do well here at Kempton in handicap events. They also do well with horses dropping in class, those making their handicap debuts and those running on the A/W for the first time after runs on turf. I doubt there has been very many horses who tick all those boxes, but we have one here with It’s A Yes From Me.

The addition of a visor is expected to expect help here and he probably wouldn’t to need to improve too much dropping in class to take this. He hasn’t been done too many favours by the assessor, but he is a half brother to two other winners on the A/W and if he takes to the surface like many of his stablemates have, he could well have a decent chance at a fairly big price.

Only two firms (Bet365 and Paddy P) had opened a book at 7.30pm when I wrote this, so a further check may be needed, but the latter were offering the best price and there looks enough in it to take the safety-first approach with this one. Thus, the play is a 0.5pt E/W bet on It’s A Yes From Me at 8/1 BOG with Paddy P. To see what the others offer once they’re open for this race…

…click here for the latest betting on the 5.55 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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