Stat of the Day, 28th August 2014
It’s A Yes From Me failed to display the X-Factor (I can almost hear your groans!) at Kempton on Wednesday evening, despite being well backed into 4/1 favouritism from our advised 8/1 odds.
So, value was on our side, but the result wasn’t. In truth, even a placed finish never really looked on the cards and any effort we got was shortlived, culminating in a defeat by six lengths and four lengths shy of a consolation payout.
I’m still scratching about for a bit of form but I think we’ve a decent chance of a winner in Thursday’s…
Courtesy of a 1pt 5/1 BOG win bet on Ed Dunlop’s in-form 3 yr old Taqneen in this Class 4 3yo+ handicap over a mile on soft ground.
Since the start of the 2011 campaign, Ed Dunlop’s record in these open age handicaps is decent enough, as testified by his 31 winners from 192 runners. This 16.2% strike rate has generated 54.4pts at an ROI of 28.3% to date and those running on soft ground have won 10 of 30 (33.3%) for excellent profits of 41.6pts, or 138.7% of stakes invested. His record in 3yo+ handicaps at Ffos Las in that period is 3 wins from 6 for 18.8pts (+313.4% ROI)!
Today he gives a handicap debut to Taqneen and 15.7% of his flat handicappers have won on debut since 2008. The 24 winners from 153 debuts have produced 51.3pts profit at level stakes for an ROI of 33.5% and from those figures, his 3 yr olds have won 18 of 110 races (16.4% SR) for 43pts (+39.1% ROI) profit.
All Ed’s focus is on Taqneen today, as this is his only runner of the day and he tends to do well with single entrants. Since the start of the 2011 season, if his only runner of the day has been sent out to contest a handicap race, he has had a winner on 16 of 76 ocasions, as trike rate of 21.1% and profits of 54.4pts or 71.1% of all stakes invested.
As for the horse himself, he comes here after a great run of form in his debut season after being unraced as a 2yr old. He was 4th of 5th on debut at Newcastle back in April, where it seemed to be the trip rather than the soft ground that found him out, as he went down by 9 lengths over 1m2f.
Since then he has contested four maidens all at today’s 1 mile trip and has a record of 2221. He was narrowly beaten (Nk, 1l, 0.5l) in three Class 5 races before stepping to today’s Class 4 level to win by 3.5 lengths on soft ground.
The ground will be similarly soft for him here today and he gets to run off the same mark of 79 as last time out, further aided by a 6lb weight for age allowance, which should make him even more competitively weighted. He’s has almost four weeks rest after that maiden win and as he’s still unexposed may still some improvement to come.
Taqneen looks a little overpriced to me at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor and he is as low as 7/2 in some places, but I’m on at 5’s and I hope you will be too. If BetVictor’s price has changed by the time you read this, I suggest that you…
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