Stat of the Day, 29th August 2014
A poor show from Taqneen at Ffos Las yesterday indeed, as he folded quite tamely to finish stone last of 10 runners.
We backed him at 5’s, he opened at 4’s and ran at 5’s, so even nothing there to shout about.
Last August was one of only two unprofitable months in the last year for SotD and this month has proved “challenging” once again, but I’ve still two opportunities remaining, the first of which runs in the…
…a Class 4 handicap for three year olds over ten furlongs, where Ryan Moore rides Sir Michael Stoute’s handicap debutant Savant, who steps up in trip from a mile for this contest. All of those snippets of information are relevant to today’s selection, so let’s break it down.
1. Sir Michael Stoute has won 26 of 108 (24.1%SR) races for 3yr olds only here at Sandown since 2008. The level stakes profits of 53.9pts are a whisker shy of a 50% return above stakes.
2. Ryan Moore’s record in handicap races at this track is decent enough: 25 wins from 120 (20.8% SR) in the last four seasons with 16.8pts (14% ROI) from those winners.
From the 25/120 stat, we can filter down as follows…
Those sent off at 5/2 to 8/1 won 17 of 75 (22.7% SR) for 27.3pts (+36.4% ROI), of which…
…10 winners from 38 (26.3% SR) in 3yo races producing 28.3pts (+74.4% ROI) profit, from which…
… 5 winners came from the 17 horses trained by Sir Michael with that 29.4% strike rate bringing in 13.4pts profit at an ROI of 78.9%.
3. In UK flat handicaps since the start of the 2011 campaign, 3 yr old horses who stepped up in trip by two furlongs after being unplaced last time out, went on to win 132 of 834 (15.8% SR) of the longer races with the 221.5pts profit equating to some 25.4% of stakes. Those figures are based on 1pt level stakes with a 14/1 cut off point.
From those 834 sub-14/1 runners, those running at odds of 5/2 to 8/1 won 84 of 396 (21.2% SR) for 72.2pts (+18.2% ROI).
4. And finally, Sir Michael Stoute isn’t averse to stepping his runners up in trip for their handicap debut and 23 winners from 105 efforts since 2009 says it works for him. This 21.9% strike rate has produced 22.9pts profit at an ROI of 21.8% to date.
Savant has shown some promise in three maidens so far, despite failing to even make the frame. He proved he could handle soft ground when fourth on his racing debut over course and distance three months ago and caught the eye when fifth of fourteen at Kempton over a mile just over three weeks ago.
That 1m trip seemed a little sharp for him and he should relish both the step back up in trip, but also the softer ground on offer today. Despite finishing 5th that day, he was less than 2.5 lengths adrift at the finish. He was 1.75 lengths behind 3rd placed Above The Rest who subsequently reappeared at Nottingham a fortnight ago to make all in a five-length victory.
His breeding suggests Savant will get 1m2f and he seems the typical Stoute handicap improver, so I’m happy enough to propose a 1pt win bet on Savant at 11/2 BOG. That price is available at both Boylesports and BetVictor and I’ve gone with the latter, purely because their site is a bot more user-friendly!
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