Stat of the Day, 30th August 2014
Hot (or not so hot, really!) on the heels of Thursday’s last of ten, came Friday’s runner who finished last of 12!
Time to panic? Of course not, it has admittedly been a difficult month and the last two days haven’t been very good at all, But as Matt has pointed out on the Double Dutch recently, form is temporary and the results we have both achieved together as a team on SotD will stand up to the closest scrutiny amongst any other “tipsters”.
And, there’s always Saturday! :D, where I close out the month with a trip to Lincolnshire for the…
Where I’m siding with the more favoured of two Peter Bowen runners, Strumble Head, who currently trades at 4/1 BOG in a couple of places.
Peter has an excellent record here at this track with 29 winners from just 137 runners since 2008. This 21.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 84.2pts at an ROI of 61.5% and whilst the strike rate is exactly the same for handicaps and non-handicaps alike, all the profit comes from the former.
The 21.2% strike rate in handicaps comes via a record of 22 wins from 104 runners, but he overall profit here is 85.8pts, or a whopping 82.5% ROI. Most of the winners have come in chase contests, where Peter’s record reads 16 winners from 68 (23.5% SR) for 43.6pts profit at an ROI of 64.1%.
Which, I suppose, inexorably leads us to the fact that Peter Bowen has an excellent record in handicap chases at Market Rasen, as seen by his 16/64 (25% SR) record which has generated 47.6pts (+74.3% ROI) and those sent off in the 2/1 to 8/1 odds range have fared even better with a 1-in-3 strike rate (13 from 39) producing 34.4pts (+88.2% ROI) profit.
Strumble Head is a former course and distance winner who came back into form when winning at Ffos Las a week ago. That win came on the back of a run of three poor efforts after previously finishing third at the Welsh track in May. This takes his last five runs to a series of finishes reading 34751 and he’s turned out quickly again to catch him whilst in good heart.
He’s not the first horse to be used in this way and he qualifies for my “back to form” microsystem I’ve talked about in the past. The basics criteria to be met are : UK NH Handicaps and a horse won won LTO inside the last 30 days after a run of 3 (or more!) consecutive unplaced efforts.
Since the start of 2012, there has actually been 932 such runners (far more than you’d expect) and the 202 winners is a 21.2% portion of those runners, whilst the resultant 149.6pts profit equates to 16.1% of stakes invested to date.
A simple 14/1 odds cap reduce the number of runners down to 851, but we only lose 2 winners and the 200/851 record gives us a strike rate of 23.5% and level stakes profits of 177.1pts (+20.8% ROI). In this sub-14/1 group, Peter Bowen is 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 11.7pts (+90.2% ROI)!
And those running at odds between 5/2 and 10/1 have won 103 of 532 races (19.4% SR) for 146.2pts (+27.5% ROI) with Peter Bowen contributing 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) for 13.22pts (+220.3% ROI).
Strumble Head took full advantage of a falling handicap mark to score last time out and although he’s back up in weight, he’s clearly in good nick and conditions will suit him today.
He has won four of 17 on good ground and gets the 3m1f readily as proven with his course and distance win. Jockey Donal Devereux has been in the saddle every time this horse has won in the past (9/32 together) and the horse is 6/16 at this level.
Further interesting stats about the horse include a 9/21 record when priced at 6/1 or shorter, improving to 6/9 at 4/1 or shorter. So, if the money’s down, he has a chance. He’s 5/11 in fields of seven or fewer runners and has won 6 of 22 races when running within 30 days of his last outing.
He’s 4/6 in the month of August and has a record of 6/17 in blinkers. Of note here is the application of a tongue tie for the first time and if that has the expected/desired effect, we could well end the month on a high with a winning 1pt bet on Strumble Head at 4/1 BOG.
I’m on with bet365, but I know BetVictor are currently offering the same price. To see what the others are offering is really easy. You just need to…
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