Stat of the Day, 1st September 2014
Saturday’s performance was a marked improvement upon the previous two days’, but in fairness things couldn’t have got much worse.
As it was, Strumble Head was only beaten on the run in having jumped the last almost neck and neck with the eventual winner. Sometimes, you just find one too good for your selection and that was the case at Market Rasen, pure and simple, no excuses.
The fact that our runner was 23 lengths clear of the next horse showed it was a good pick after two clunkers and although August was marginally profitable, it has never been one of my better months and I’m glad to see the back of it.
We kick off the new month with a 3m2f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle aka the…
And a 4/1 BOG bet on Nigel Twiston-Davies’ 8 yr old mare Dazzling Rita.
You’re possibly already aware that this late summer/early autumn period is generally a very productive time for the NTD yard, but in case, you weren’t sure, here are some details…
Over the last six years in the August to October (inclusive) period, Nigel’s “jumpers” have won 125 of 571 races at a strike rate of 21.9% which has, in turn, generated level stakes profits of 347.2pts at an ROI of some 60.8%.
And, if those figures aren’t impressive enough for you, his hurdlers have made the bulk of the profit.
The hurdlers have won 50 of 224 races at a slightly lower strike rate of 20.5%, but the level stakes profits of 251.7pts represent a return of 103.1% above all stakes invested.
NTD runs two horses here today, but Seacon Beg runs in the later bumper, leaving Dazzling Rita as his only runner tacking obstacles and therefore, is the default choice.
She ran really well last time out at Southwell a fortnight ago to finish within six lengths of Kilfinichen Bay who subsequently won again a week later off a 7lb higher mark. Our selection was making her reappearance after a 62-week break from the track and although she never looked like catching the winner, she stayed on well to beat her other nine rivals home.
She was entitled to have needed that run after such a lengthy absence and it is expected that she’ll come on for having had that run.
She’s by Midnight Legend, whose offspring have won 217 of 1297 races over obstacles since 2008. This 16.7% strike rate has so far generated a huge 617.7pts profit at an ROI of 47.6%. Those horses running here at Huntingdon are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 14.8pts (+42.3% ROI).
1297 races is a massive sample size incorporating several large priced winners, so it can sometimes be of benefit to show an odds breakdown and if we do the following…
Priced below 12/1 : 193 winners from 816 (23.7% SR) for 258.9pts (+31.7% ROI) with the record here at Huntingdon being 10/25 (40% SR) for 24.8pts (+99.2% ROI).
And those running at 6/1 or shorter : 152/507 (30% SR) for 119.5pts (+23.6% ROI) with a 9/19 (47.4% SR) record here at Huntingdon for 18.4pts (+96.9% ROI).
Dazzling Rita should benefit from her outing a fortnight and provided she has rested well in between races, looks set to improve on that run. Her victor has gone on to in again, so we’ve every chance of success from a 1pt win bet on Dazzling Rita at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. The 7/2 BOG on offer from Hills is next best, as you’ll see when you…
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