Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2014

Venus Marina started well enough and finished the race quite strongly staying on towards the end, but she was rather flat in the midsection of the race and that’s where the contest was lost, I fear.

She was eventually beaten by the best part of six lengths as she came home in 7th of the 12 runners, having been sent off as one of two 7/2 jt favourites (the same price we’d advised).

They do say that if at first you don’t succeed, then you are to try again, so it’s the same venue for us on Wednesday and a crack at the…

8.10 Kempton:

Yesterday I said…“I do like to look for horses turned out quickly after a recent return to form, as trainers like to “Strike Whilst The Iron Is Hot!”. In this instance the criteria for my microsystem are as follows…

A/W handicaps at Kempton / horse running at 10/1 or shorter / won last time out within the last thirty days / was unplaced in each of its last 3 (or more!) races prior to that LTO win. It’s really not as complicated as it might at first look, but basically the horse has, for some reason, come into form and the trainer hopes it will run well again.

Well, since 2008, 448 horses have come to Kempton on the back of that return to winning ways and have been sent off at 10/1 or shorter. 110 of the 448 (24.6%) have completed the back-to-back successes and have generated 154.2pts (+34.4% ROI) profits for anyone backing them.

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As these runners have come off the back of a win last time out, they are invariably running off a higher mark than their previous run and horses running off a higher mark have won 108 of 422 (25.6% SR) for 160.6pts (+38.1% ROI).

Interestingly other runners fulfilling the criteria and raised 7lbs have won 10 of 21 (47.6% SR) races here, generating 45.3pts (+215.6% ROI) in the process.”

Well, despite a couple of losing qualifiers yesterday, it’s still a very strong and valid stat and to reiterate my earlier comment about trying again, if you don’t succeed at first, I’m using the stat again!

I wouldn’t use the same stat in isolation two days in a row and it’s really only a supplementary stat, as I’ve plenty of other reasons for backing Anglo Irish today, the return to form angle (recent form 110941) is just one of them!

He’s trained by John Gosden…

Who is in decent form with three winners from 8 in the last week (8 from 27  in the last fortnight) and also has a strike rate of 19.1% here at this track over the last six years.

William Buick is on board today…

And he too is in good touch, having ridden 7 winners from his 22 rides in the last week (11 from 39 in the last fortnight) and his strike rate here is 18.5% since 2008.

Anglo Irish is a 3yr old competing in an open age handicap…

Which brings the “weight for age allowance” into play again, as he gets to carry some 9lbs less than he’d normally carry in a 3yr old race. John Gosden is one of the better trainers at using this allowance to his advantage. In the last five seasons, at trips of 1m2f and beyond, where the larger allowances are made (1m4f today), his 3 yr olds have won 24 of 99 such open age handicaps.

This 24.24% strike rate has produced just over 40pts profits at level stakes at an ROI of 40.4% with those sent off in the Evens to 7/1 price bracket winning 21 of 75 races (28% SR) for 31.0pts (+42.5% ROI).

Anglo Irish‘s recent run of unplaced efforts (as noted above ) all came from his only three starts on grass and a switch back to polytrack has suited him better. His record on the A/W reads 32111 and he has a record of 311 here at Kempton, with wins at today’s 1m4f trip and also at 1m3f last time out. I’d say it’s safe to assume that track, surface conditions nor trip should be his undoing today. He hasn’t been hammered by the assessor for his latest win either, being raised just 3lbs for this one.

There’s plenty going for him here and I think there’s more improvement to come and he’s also top rated on the new Geegeez Ratings now featured on our interactive racecards.

I’ve seen/read enough about this one to be confident of a decent display, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Anglo Irish at 7/2 BOG with Coral. Most firms have already opened a book on this one and the odds vary from 11/4 to 100/30 elsewhere, as can be seen, if you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 8.10 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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