Double Dutch, 4th September 2014
You know you’ve had a poor day when the best you can manage is a 2 lengths defeat from a 5/4 favourite out of your four selections with your misery being compounded when that runner-up was beaten by one you almost plumped with as the alternate pick.
That’s how yesterday panned out, I’m afraid, as Conquestadim (adv 6/4) was beaten into 2nd place by 8/1 featherweight Sparkling Ice who I’d overlooked in favour of Passionate Affair who trialed in some 16 lengths behind the winner.
Mind you, the game was already up, when our two runners in the earlier race could only finish 3rd and 4th in a 7-horse handicap. Not one of my better days!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Dubai Hadeia: 3rd at 15/8(adv 15/8)
Dutch Rifle: 4th at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Conquestadim: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 6/4)
Passionate Affair: 5th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
339 winning selections from 1189 = 28.51%
111 winning bets in 310 days = 35.81%
P/L : +65.84pts (+10.62% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
And so to Thursday…
Where the lightly raced, in-form and bottom weight Felwah can make it four wins from six career starts today, after finishing 51121 in her previous five outings and she’s three from four over 7/7.5 furlongs. She’s versatile going-wise, having won on good to firm and soft ground and both her jockey (Paul Hanagan) and her trainer (William Haggas) have good records here at the track, whilst her yard consistently has a 25% or better strike rate at any point over the last year.
She made all last time, isn’t overexposed at this level and probably hasn’t finished improving. This is obviously tougher under a 4lb weight rise, but that’s possibly why she’s now as long as 9/4 BOG with SkyBet.
The standard here, however, is set by Remember who has posted some decent performances at this Class 2 level of late, despite not winning. She has been racing over 6f of late and doing all her best work late on, suggesting the return to 7f would suit her better. She has won at 6f, don’t get me wrong, but has looked outpaced in the midsection of her last few outings at this level over six.
She’s a former winner over 7 furlongs, so that shouldn’t be a concern and it’s interesting that Richard Hughes has chosen her ahead of the yard’s other entrant Musicora for this race. If Richard can squeeze a little extras from her here, Remember could well be a 4/1 BOG winner.
As a single bet, Marsh Pride looks a little skinny at 6/4 BOG, but if we’re still in with a shout of the double, could be the ideal 2nd part of the bet. She was a comfortable winner in a 13-runner maiden at Ripon almost three weeks ago and shaped as though she’ll relish the extra furlong here today. The runner-up from that race has finished second again since then, with the third place horse reappearing at Kempton on Tuesday to win by two lengths, whilst the horses back in 5th and 6th have also gone on to be placed.
If that form continues to work out and she takes the extra distance in her stride, she has more than fighting chance of landing this one.
The big danger and slightly longer priced than I expected is Lady Moscou. Finishes of 221 in three maidens was an indication of her potential with both defeats being less than a length, before a win at Nottingham in a Class 5 contest back in July. Don’t read too much in her only finishing 5th last time out, as that was a massive step up to Listed Class and also her first crack at today’s 7 furlongs.
The fact of the matter is that she was only beaten by four lengths and she was staying on at the close. She was a length behind 4th-placed Russian Punch who has since also dropped back to this Class 5 level and was a convincing 5 lengths winner at Redcar 12 days ago. Jockey Kieran Falon has been amongst the winners again of late and has a good record here at the track, as does trainer James Tate, and they can boost their tallies with a winner at 5/2 BOG here today.
In fact, I’d be quite surprised if we don’t get a 1-2 finish in this one.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Felwah / Marsh Pride @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : PP, SkyBet, Bet365, BetVictor)
Felwah / Lady Moscou @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Remember / Marsh Pride @ 11.50/1 (4/1 & 6/4 : Ladbrokes)
Remember / Lady Moscou @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Coral)