Stat of the Day, 4th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2014

William Buick gave Anglo Irish  a great ride yesterday, keeping the horse handy throughout he first 10 furlongs of the 1m4f contest. The runners were starting to queue up at the 2 pole with a handful still in with a good chance, but once William asked his mount for an effort, they were unlikely to lose.

They opened up a comfortable gap on the run in and although Sleeper closed in fast at the death, our pair always seemed on control and justified their 11/4 market favouritism.

The icing on the cake was the fact we made an extra 0.75pts by taking 7/2 earlier. It was good to get off the mark for September and buoyed by this, we stay on the A/W to take on an odds on jolly in the…

7.40 Wolverhampton:

Where the presence of Authorized Too as short as 4/5 in places, means there could well be some value in a 9/2 BOG bet on the lightly raced (and therefore unexposed!) handicap debutant Charlottes Day.

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This horse was last seen almost a year ago when finishing 3rd at Bath over a mile, when she ran well despite seeming outpaced over an inadequately short trip. She steps up 4 furlongs to 1m4f today and it is felt that she’ll perform better at this trip and her breeding would tend to back up this theory.

She’s trained by Sir Mark Prescott…

…whose record in Wolverhampton handicaps since 2008 reads as 30 winners from 105 runners (28.6% SR) for 43.6pts profit at an ROI of 41.5%. And those sent off between 5/2 & 8/1 have won 15 of 51 (29.4% SR) for 40pts (+78.4% ROI). I know there has been a change of surface, but it does show that the Prescott team like coming here.

His unexposed handicappers perform well when stepped up in trip…

Those runners from his yard with three or fewer handicap runs under their belt have a 36.7% strike rate when asked to go between three and six furlongs further than their last run. 3 to 6 furlongs is a marked step up in trip, I feel and the 18 winners from 49 suggests it’s a tactic Sir Mark likes. Incidentally that 36.7% strike rate has produced 46.3pts profit to date at an ROI of 94.4%.

From this 18/49 stat, the figures for those sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 range is 15/30 (50% SR) for 58pts (+193.4% ROI).

And of the 49 runners above, 30 were actually making their debut and with a 1-in-3 strike rate via 10 winners, the level stakes profits add up to 27.5pts or 91.6% of all stakes invested with the 5/2 to 8/1 runners having a 9/20 (45% SR) record yielding 34.6pts (+173% ROI) profit.

After 4 outings on turf, this is her A/W debut…

Regular readers will now that I like watching certain yards for switching runners from turf to A/W for the first time and Sir Mark Prescott is one of the better trainers at this tactic. If you keep an eye out for his “switchers” priced at 10/1 or shorter, you won’t have too many bets, but you’ll make profit.

This claim is borne out by a 7/24 (29.2% SR) record to date that has generated 21.5pts (+89.4% ROI) level stakes profit.

There are, of course, doubts about Charlottes Day‘s rustiness after a 355-day layoff and there’s an odds on favourite to contend with, but that favourite is up in weight again and might just get caught out today.

It’s by no means an easy race to win, but I feel there’s enough value in the price to justify a 1pt win bet on Charlottes Day at 9/2 BOG with Hills. The same price is available at BetVictor, whilst 4/1 BOG seems to be the norm, as you’ll see if you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 7.40 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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