Double Dutch, 5th September 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th September 2014

Thursday’s results were far better than Wednesday’s dismal showing, but still fell short of what was needed to make any profit. In fact, we were just half a length shy of what would have been a very welcome double at over 12/1.

As expected, Felwah raced prominently at Salisbury and once she kicked for home, she was the only one likely to win. The market had disagreed with me about her, choosing to back our other runner, Remember (4th) instead. This meant a nice half point drift out to 11/4 for Felwah and her eventual 2.5l victory gave us a nice stake for the later contest.

Unfortunately, neither Lady Moscou nor the well-backed Marsh Pride (sent off at Evens!) could oblige for us despite the former staying on well to chase the eventual winner home, who was carrying no weight at all and wasn’t to be caught. Another half furlong, perhaps and we’d have a different story, but the bookies’ shops are lined with “what if” stories!

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Felwah: won at 11/4(adv 9/4)
Remember: 4th at 9/4 (adv 4/1)
——————————————
Lady Moscou: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Marsh Pride: 3rd at Evens (adv 6/4)

Results to date:
340 winning selections from 1193 = 28.50%
111 winning bets in 311 days = 35.69%

Stakes: 622.00pts
Returns: 685.84pts

P/L : +63.84pts (+10.26% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This is the plan for Friday…

2.20 Newcastle:

If I’ve read this one correctly, it looks like a desperately poor maiden here with the majority of the runners looking to scrape a place or be cajoled into some kind of form.

The nine runners can be split into two distinct groups and I’ll take a runner from each. Firstly we have those with plenty (too much for some!) experience, and they are the five runners with an official rating, but are still maidens after a combined total of 82 races! Although in fairness, Island Express accounts for 37 runs on his own (sent off at 14/1 or longer in 35 of them!) and is immediately discarded.

The one from this group I’ll take is Resist, the least exposed of the five after “just” eight winless starts. She has been knocking on the door of late, finishing third in four of her last five starts and she seems to have improved in the the two runs for her new trainer James Given. His horses are running well at present and this race looks a good opportunity to finally get off the mark at 11/4 BOG (Hills), especially with Connor Beasley in the saddle, as not only does he take another 3lbs off, but he has a near 20% strike rate at this track.

Of the other four runners (just eight starts between them), the best piece of form belongs to Jan Van Hoof, who despite sounding like a lumbering Dutch centre-half that Man United might buy, showed quite a bit of promise on his debut at Wolverhampton, when finishing second. He has been off the track for almost six months, but knowing the Fahey team, they’ll have him primed for a race they will have identified as being quite winnable.

JVH is currently priced at 2/1 BOG with PP and looks the likeliest to go off as favourite and with 43.2% of all favourites winning maidens in the UK in the last four years (46/101 here at Newcastle), the signs are promising that the bookies have got this one right.

*

5.25 Chepstow:

Three year olds tend to do well in these longer distance open age handicaps, due to the weight for age allowance scheme. 9lbs is the allowance for this race, which will help last time out winners Cinnilla and Real Jazz to be competitive once again.

Cinnilla had been running pretty well without winning about better/more progressive types prior to romping home at Salisbury over 1m6f a week ago. She demolished the field by nine lengths that day and although now under a 6lb penalty, she’s now 7lbs well in at the weights. She comes from an in-form yard (12/57 in the last month) who do well here at Chepstow in handicap contests (9/26 in the last 5yrs) and won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip and she’s the one I’d want to back here at 9/4 BOG.

Real Jazz, however, is a big danger at 7/4 BOG and she comes here on the back of a run of form reading 221 in her three starts (all handicaps) this season. Shewas a comfortable winner last Saturday when winning by 5 lengths stepping up to 1m2f for the first time, and as that was an apprentices’ race, there’s no penalty for that victory.

She now carries bottom weight today, further aided by Rosie Jessop’s 3lb claim which should help with any stamina issues trying 12f for the first time. She is due to go up 11lbs, so this is an ideal opportunity to get at least one more good run under her belt before that hike kicks in. Her yard is also in good form with three winners from nine runners in the last week, including last night’s 8/1 winner for Stat of the Day.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Jan Van Hoof / Real Jazz @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : PP)
Jan Van Hoof / Cinnilla @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : PP)
Resist / Real Jazz @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Resist / Cinnilla @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)