Stat of the Day, 5th September 2014
We had to be patient recently waiting for our next winner, but that patience has now been rewarded with back to back successes.
The odds on jolly was heavily backed at Wolverhampton from an overnight best price of 10/11 right in to 1/2 at the off! I thought the value would lie with Charlotte’s Day at 9/2 (4/1 generally) but I was quite shocked to see her at 8/1 just before the off. In fact I had another 0.5pts E/W on her at that price, so help cover the outlay on the original SotD bet, were she to finish second.
As it was, she was the most comfortable of five runners, who all looked like they were driven at one point or another, but our jockey Luke Morris had it all under control, as he got home by a good 4 lengths in the end, beating the fav by 10 lengths in the process.
11.5pts profit in the last two days puts a different complexion on this punting week and I’m looking to complete a hat-trick with victory in Friday’s…
And another late spin on the A/W (long-standing readers will remember that I do quite a bit of A/W betting at this time of year), where Gone Dutch looks good value for his current 6/1 BOG price tag for a variety of reasons, several of which I’ll share with you here! 😀
1. He’s trained by James Fanshawe, who is one of my “trainers to follow”…
Simply because if you had backed every single one of his runners since the start of 2011, you’d have made yourself a fair few quid! To be more specific, 135 winners from 841 runners in the last 44 months or so is a remarkable strike rate of 16.1% and the level stakes profits of 199pts from those runners represents a 23.7% return on stakes. James had no runners yesterday but had 2 winners from 5 on Wednesday.
2. Not only is the trainer blindly profitable, he excels here at Kempton…
Since the start of 2010, James’ record here is 57 from 245 runners for a 23.3% strike rate and 113.3pts profit at an ROI of 46.3pts. This overall stat can then be broken down as follows:
Handicap races : 38/142 (26.8% SR) for 112.6pts (+79.3% ROI)
Class 3 Handicaps : 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 40.2pts (+211.7% ROI)
1m3f & 1m4f races : 20/68 (29.4% SR) for 68pts (+100% ROI)
11/12f handicaps : 14/40 (35% SR) for 73pts (+182.6% ROI) and finally…
11/12f Class 3 handicaps : 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 31.6pts (+350.8% ROI)
3. Gone Dutch drops back down from Class 2 today…
Since 2008, James Fanshawe has dropped 158 runners down in class with 26 of them going on to win. This 16.5% strike rate has, so far, generated 59.2pts profit at an ROI of 37.5%. More than half of those winners came from the 39% of runners who ran on the All-Weather, where the numbers read 14 winners from 61 (23% SR) for level stakes profits of 29.2pts (+47.9% ROI).
Here at Kempton, meanwhile, the record is 8 winners from 26 (30.8% SR) for 36.6pts (+140.6% ROI) profit.
4. Freddie Tylicki is in the saddle today…
And he has been amongst the winners himself recently, with 7 victories from 29 rides in the last fortnight. Freddie also has a good record on James Fanshawe’s runners, with 25 winners from 141 rides (17.7% SR) producing 18.8pts (+13.3% ROI) profit.
Freddie has been successful on 18 of 73 (24.7% SR) Fanshawe handicappers to date with the resultant 25.3pts profit equating to a 34.6% return on stakes. Those figures rise to 9 winners from 25 (36% SR) for 26.7pts (+106.7% ROI) here at Kempton.
As for Gone Dutch himself, he’s a decent enough 4yr old who has a better than average record consisting of four wins and two places from his thirteen career starts to date, so he’s hardly overexposed yet. All four wins (plus a runner-up finish) have come in his 10 handicap contests and his best form has come on the All-Weather with a record reading 1511, with all four races coming here at Kempton.
He’s 2 from 2 over course and distance, including one at today’s Class 3 level on his last visit to this track. He was 2.25 lengths ahead of Starwatch that day with that horse subsequently going on to record two wins and a place from four outings after that defeat.
There’s plenty of stats to back up the claim of a decent looking runner, who I’d expect to attract money during the day, so I’m getting on early with a 1pt win bet on Gone Dutch at 6/1 BOG with Boylesports. Coral are also offering 6/1, as are Ladbrokes, but the latter aren’t BOG until 9.00am. The other firms are all at 5/1 or 11/2, so I’d advise you to…
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