Double Dutch, 6th September 2014
On Thursday we missed a 12/1 double by half a length. Yesterday was even more agonising as just a neck separated us from a win at 8.75/1, after the lead changed hands several times in the closing stages of our opening race.
Unfortunately Jan Van Hoof (who wasn’t a donkey after all!) was headed late on and just couldn’t get back up, which rendered race 2 fairly insignificant for the double, but some pride was restored, as I called the result correctly with a 1-2 finish where the exacta gave me a small 4/1 consolation prize.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Jan Van Hoof: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Resist: 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Cinnilla: won at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Real Jazz: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
341 winning selections from 1197 = 28.49%
111 winning bets in 312 days = 35.58%
P/L : +61.84pts (+9.91% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday’s selections are as follows…
Roger Charlton’s horses are in great form at the moment and he also has a very good record here at Haydock and in the 7/4 BOG chance Captain Cat, he stands a really good chance of landing this race for the third time in five years. This horse has finished 122113 in hos last six runs, including victory in a Group 3 contest over today’s 1m trip at Salisbury 23 days and 2 starts ago. He really should have landed a Group 2 prize last time out and he was flying at the finish, but jockey James Doyle was quick to admit he’d given the horse too much to do and you can bet he’ll be nearer the pace today.
Last year’s winner Top Notch Tonto was beaten by Short Squeeze at York last time out, which could be significant here today. It shows he has the ability to win at this level and he’s aprevious course and distance winner (albeit at a lower level) and acts on most ground conditions. He’s getting weight from the main selection and if he settles down a little earlier today (very headstrong in the past), Short Squeeze could very well improve his record of four wins from five at this trip by taking this at 3/1 BOG.
Where Pas de Cheval (9/4 BOG) looks the one to beat. He has shown signs of potential in four defeats in maidens so far, but has always looked like he needs to go further than the 10-12f asked of him so far. This is hardly surprising, as he’s a half-brother to smart Group 3 winning stayer Patkai and Modun and he was visibly outpaced early on in his last contest here over 1m4f nineteen days ago. He stayed on well though and was doing all his best work at the end and the step up to 2 miles here could be all that’s needed to get him off the mark in an ordinary looking contest.
The form standard is set, I suppose, by Jelly Fish, a winner on three of his seven starts to date, including a victory on his only prior visit to Kempton. He has been gradually stepping up in trip, culminating in a win on his first crack at 1m4f last time out at Salisbury. His breeding (by Observatory) suggests he’ll stay the full two miles despite a 6lb rise in weights.He’s the form horse in the race and has the only course victory on show here today and 11/4 BOG could offer great value come tea-time.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Captain Cat / Pas de Cheval @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : most places)
Captain Cat / Jelly Fish @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Short Squeeze / Pas de Cheval @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : most places)
Short Squeeze / Jelly Fish @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : Betfair Sports & PP)